New Delhi (AsiaNews) - On April 15 in Yangon 3 explosions turned the Thins-Gyan (water festival) centre of the celebrations for the Burmese New Year into a bloodbath, with more than 30 dead and dozens wounded. The rehime has however downplayed the incident, providing an official toll of 8 deaths and surrounding the local emergency room to avoid leaks. So far, the junta has attributed the attack to a group of dissidents or ethnic minority. But suspicions point to the involvement of the regime, that apparently planned the attack as a strategy to increase tensions and send a signal to its opponents in the vote. AsiaNews asks the opinion of Tint Swe, Member of Council of Ministers of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), consisting of refugees from Myanmar after the 1990 elections won by the National League for Democracy and never acknowledged by the military junta. Having fled to India in 1990, since 21 December 1991, he has lived in New Delhi. Since then a member of  NCGUB where he serves as Information Officer for South Asia and East Timor

Each year Burmese astronomers make predictions for the next 12 months. In such an agricultural country rain is indispensable. If rain comes on the first day of water festival the first third of Monsoon will is wet. The second day means for the middle and the last day is for the last third of the rainy season. This year on the middle day 15th April, instead of rain bombs killed 20 people in the ex-capital Rangoon.

Since Myanmar has been controlled by the military, attacks are a common thing, but nobody has ever tried those who prove them and in the entire history of the regime there has never been suicide attacks. The junta bans guns in addition to the possession of knives bigger than a box. In fact, during the riots of 1988 the demonstrators had used slingshots.

In January, during New Year celebrations, there was another explosion and the regime pointed the finger at the militant's of the Karen National Union (KNU), the armed group of Karen ethnicity has always been at war with the army. But people know that these are just allegations. Last year a series of attacks occurred in some shopping malls and no one has been charged. In 2001, again at New Year, the explosion of a helicopter and some residences killed three soldiers near the General Tin Oo, Secretary of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). The people know that these are only purges carried out by the regime.

Most of these facts are carried out not only by the military regime, but by a powerful intelligence apparatus. This happens since the junta began to use the various intelligence agencies created by General Ne Win. In theory, they serve to monitor external threats, to control the spread of narcotics and to prevent illegal immigration.

The powerful and influential intelligence agencies spend an enormous part of the State funds and use most of the resources. They are so confident of their power, they also know if a pin falls anywhere in the country. But antigovernment groups are still as active as before. There are no external threats and Myanmar remains one of the main centers of production and trafficking of opium and synthetic drugs. Millions of people continue to flee the country and tens of thousands of foreigners from China, India and Bangladesh each year pass the border. So what is the real role of secret services? It is in fact to control and suppress domestic opponents.

Since the era of the regime of General Ne Win, the Chinese are called "Pauk-Phaw" which means blood brothers. This does not exclude involvement in domestic politics. When there was the collapse in 1988 China had the task of providing weapons. And besides guaranteeing military aid and trade, the Chinese government has always defended the regime at all meetings of the UN.

Recently, the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was forced to cancel his visit to Myanmar because of the earthquake in Qinghai and the attack on Yangon. The prime minister will have to reassess the security situation in the country before his arrival. However, he has no need to worry, because the explosions in Myanmar are not carried out by antigovernment groups. His safety is guaranteed 100%.

But who knows? This crime must be condemned, whoever committed it. The National League for Democracy has always fought peacefully and continues to do so. If the regime is not so foolish as to have detonated bombs during the festival, until the truth comes to light, the generals are responsible for the attack because it shows that they are unable to protect the population living outside the capital Naypyiday .