06/13/2013, 00.00
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World Bank warns: Less growth for China

The GDP of the Land of the Dragon will drop from 8. 4% in 2013 to 7.7%. For economists, this is good news, because the slowdown "will lead to a stabilization of the market and the economy in general." But the Party fears this drop, which in a society marked by huge disparities could trigger new social protests.

Beijing (AsiaNews) - China will grow in 2013 with a gross domestic product of 7.7%, a significant reduction compared with 8.4% expected for the current year but still "good news. It means that economic growth will be less furious but more stable", says the World Bank in its Global Forecast Report.

According to experts, the world growth in 2013 will slow down globally from 2.4% forecast  in January to 2.2%. The Eurozone and its crisis will once again have an effect: compared to the global average of 2.2%, in fact, the  growth in developing countries less affected by the collapse of the markets of the Old Continent will be 5.1%.

The chief economist of the World Bank, Kaushik Basu, said: "Our forecasts are essentially similar to those of six months ago, and in a turbulent global economy, two periods with relatively little change is already good news."

One of the "victims" of the crisis in the euro area is the Middle East, which continues to suffer from the impact of the Arab Spring and the consequent reduction in investment. Sub-Saharan Africa should instead become more resistant and touch a growth of 4.9%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand and the increase in remittances from migrants.

The second most developed economy in the world, China, will instead see its rapid growth decelerate this year by 0.7 percentage points. But this slowdown, experts say, will "correct some of the excesses in China, including the unsustainable level of investment in the country."

Although from the macroeconomic point of view this reading is correct, Beijing fears reductions in its GDP. Given the huge economic disparity inside the country and its social instability, in fact, a decline in growth could potentially trigger internal protests, already deeply felt despite the repression of the Communist Party.


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