by Fady Noun

For Netanyahu, it's a "historic deal”. The Shia militia calls the truce a "victory" for Tehran. Warnings (and threats) are issued against the disorderly return of civilians to Israeli-occupied villages south of the Litani River. The Lebanese president refuses to meet with Netanyahu without the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Saudi Arabia is engaged in efforts to keep Lebanon from both Iranian hegemony and Israeli domination.

Beirut (AsiaNews) – Midnight, 17 April, Beirut time. Loud explosions rocked the capital. Awakened by the blasts, people turn on their television. Is the 10-day ceasefire announced earlier that day by President Trump stillborn?

The deafening sound comes from tracer rounds and RPG rocket explosions that illuminate the sky of the capital’s southern suburbs fired by Hezbollah to greet the start of the ceasefire. The result is at least one death and seven arrests by Lebanese security forces. Shortly before the ceasefire came into effect, Israeli night raids killed at least 11 people in Tyre.

“Celebrations of what exactly?” asked the editor-in-chief of the Ici-Beyrouth news website this morning, referring to the devastation of the country, its dead and wounded, as well as its displaced people condemned by Iran’s war in Lebanon to remain indefinitely in tents.

Is this a first victory for Joseph Aoun? Without a doubt. The president had the courage to propose, in exchange for the complete end of hostilities, the opening of direct negotiations with Israel. A historic meeting to this effect, the first since 1983, was held on Tuesday, 14 April, in Washington, chaired by Marco Rubio, between the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the United States.

“When you’re not at the negotiating table, you’re on the menu,” said Salah Machnouk, one of the rising Sunni political stars, speaking at a meeting in support of the capital’s disarmament. The Sunni community, moreover, made sure to mark the event with motorcyclists parading through the streets of Tripoli upon the announcement of the truce.

Meanwhile, emboldened by its weapons and disregarding its own dead and the innocent victims of its adventurism, Hezbollah is convinced that the ceasefire is an Iranian “victory”, since Tehran had pressured Washington to silence the guns in Lebanon in order to continue negotiations aimed at ending the regional war.

Early morning provocation

What is certain is that the ceasefire was achieved at the end of a day that began provocatively with the announcement of a meeting, scheduled for later that day, between President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu!

President Trump had set up this “trap”, which the Lebanese president and his team managed to avoid, in announcing the 10-day ceasefire, by stating that Beirut and Tel Aviv would begin “direct negotiations” in the form of a telephone conversation in which the Secretary of State would participate as guarantor.

Finally, after a “very good meeting” with Marco Rubio alone, President Aoun received a call from President Trump himself. Moments later, the US president posted the following on Truth Social: “I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST,” Trump wrote.

Later, Trump announced that he would “invite” the two leaders to the White House, without specifying a date. Sources told AsiaNews that this offer will be refused, since the president rejects any idea of ​​a meeting with Benyamin Netanyahu as long as Lebanese territory remains occupied. "Such a meeting could potentially crown this withdrawal, but it certainly wouldn't come before it," sources said.

A little later, the US State Department indicated that the initial ceasefire period could be "extended" by agreement between the two parties, should there be "progress in the negotiations." It also stated that Israel would retain the right to take, at any time, "all necessary measures" to ensure "its self-defense against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks."

Netanyahu anticipates a “historic deal”

“We have an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon,” Netanyahu said. “I have agreed to a temporary ten-day ceasefire with Lebanon," he added. "Our main demand is that Hezbollah be dismantled."

The Israeli leader was careful to add that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon, "within a broad security zone of 10 kilometres extending to the Syrian border." According to Israeli sources, Mr. Netanyahu's decision has angered some of his ministers.

According to our information, the Israelis are insisting on the establishment of a buffer zone and the maintenance of their positions south of the Litani River, as well as the isolation of this area – as evinced by the destruction on Wednesday of the Qasmiyeh Bridge, the last usable regular road link between the south and north of the Litani.

Israel has also refused to allow residents to return to the occupied areas, where some villages and essential buildings have been razed; its goal is to impose strict control to prevent Hezbollah from redeploying its forces there.

Consequently, the Lebanese military, the speaker of parliament, and Hezbollah immediately issued statements urging residents of villages south of the Litani River, within range of Israeli forces, not to approach them.

Nevertheless, on Thursday morning, road traffic towards Sidon and the villages north of the Litani was particularly heavy, with cars bringing back furniture and mattresses, or simply yellow flags waving from windows.

In an unusual turn of events, a convoy carrying the Maronite patriarch and the apostolic nuncio to Qrayeh, a Maronite village in the Sidon region, and then on to Jezzine, was caught in the traffic on the southern highway. This pastoral visit had been planned before the ceasefire, according to sources.

In a statement, Hezbollah announced that it would respect the ceasefire on the condition that Israel completely ceases hostilities, including targeted assassinations of its members. Hezbollah added that the ceasefire must not allow the Israeli army any freedom of movement and that its presence on Lebanese territory gives Lebanon and its people “the right to resist”.

Separating the Lebanon question from Iran

Fundamentally, US efforts that led to a ceasefire are linked to a desire to split the Lebanese issue from Iran conflict, amid difficult negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The points of disagreement notably concern the fate of highly enriched uranium, which Iran refuses to send away, the continuation of enrichment, as well as the issue of frozen assets and support for regional “allies”.

In this context Saudi Arabia has reportedly intensified its contacts with various political forces, including House Speaker Nabih Berri, to maintain stability in Lebanon.

These efforts paved the way for a visit to Riyadh by Berri’s advisor, MP Ali Hassan Khalil. This was preceded by the visit of MPs Wael Bou Faour (Progressive Socialist Party) and Melhem Riachi (Lebanese Forces).

Concurrently, two phone conversations took place between Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.

Saudi Arabia appears to be trying to prevent Lebanon from falling entirely under Iranian influence, while simultaneously refusing to allow it to fall under Israeli domination.

The goal is to reach compromises with Iran, particularly on the issue of the Lebanese state's monopoly over weapons, within the framework of a comprehensive plan, in exchange for the full implementation of the Taif Agreement, which notably provides for the creation of a Senate and parliamentary elections without sectarian quotas, provisions to which the parties representing the Christian electorate are opposed.

• lebanon
• israel
• iran
• saudi arabia
• united states
• hezbollah
• war
• litani river