Asia-Pacific, one billion senior citizens by 2050, but the UN sees the 'silver economy' as an opportunity
According to a study by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the region is rapidly aging. The declining workforce and the spread of the informal economy risk accentuating existing inequalities. But greater investment in care services could create millions of jobs and new opportunities for inclusive development.
Bangkok (AsiaNews) – The Asia-Pacific region is entering a new demographic phase. Although it is home to more than 60 per cent of the world's population, growth is currently at its lowest level in decades.
This is what emerges from Advancing a Society for All Ages, a report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), according to which the region’s population is expected to peak at 5.1 billion people in the early 2050s, and then begin to decline steadily.
This figure, however, conceals different realities. Some countries are already experiencing demographic decline, while others continue to grow, but at a slower pace.
The most obvious change concerns the age of the population. By 2050, the number of people over 65 will double, reaching nearly one billion – one in five people in the region will be a senior citizen.
The median age, currently at 33.1 years, will rise to 40.5. The change will be so rapid that it will take just 26 years to move from an "aging" society to an "older" society. The same process took almost a century in some parts of Europe.
The impact of these changes risks generating a series of imbalances in labour markets. While the labour force participation rate was 66 per cent in the 2000s, it will be 55 per cent by 2050, a decline primarily due to rapid aging and, to a lesser extent, longer education. Yet, despite the shrinking labour force, "decent work" remains elusive.
Today, two thirds of workers in Asia-Pacific (an estimated 1.3 billion people) are employed in the informal sector and therefore lack welfare protection, such as access to healthcare, or stable incomes, making them particularly exposed to economic shocks, including those resulting from climate change.
It is often older people who continue to work in the informal sector even after retirement, as only about half of the population over the legal retirement age receives any form of pension (the figure excludes China).
The report highlights the enormous untapped potential due to a retirement age that remains very low compared to rising life expectancy, with years of untapped productive capacity.
According to ESCAP, “active aging" policies, such as lifelong learning and greater workplace flexibility, could transform this challenge into an opportunity.
Maternity is still penalised and risks continuing to be so, entrenching economic and gender inequalities.
Across the region, women participate in the labour market at a rate approximately 30 percentage points lower than men. And even when they work, they earn an average of 45 cents for every dollar earned by men.
Furthermore, in areas like South Asia, women perform two to five times more domestic and care work than men, a burden that increases with motherhood and persists throughout life.
Due to a longer lifespan, these inequalities persist into old age. Today, women represent 62 per cent of those over 80, but the figure rises to 75 per cent in areas like Central and North Asia.
The study also highlights that many women are not eligible for contributory pension schemes, and when they do, benefit levels are often lower due to shorter and less remunerative working careers.
However, according to the report, despite these persistent challenges, the demographic shift toward a "silver economy" can be transformed into opportunities.
Goods and services for older people should involve sectors such as healthcare, health technologies, banking services, and accessible tourism. The care economy could also become a powerful driver of employment.
According to ESCAP estimates, the number of people requiring long-term care will double by 2050. Among older people, diseases such as diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases are rising sharply and are now the leading cause of death in the region.
The number of people with disabilities is also growing. Currently, there are approximately 750 million individuals, a figure that is set to rise, placing increasing pressure on health services and care systems, which are often still inadequate.
The care sector could become the next major driver of employment. The demand for workers needed to provide long-term care is projected to double between 2023 and 2050, from 46 million to 90 million.
At the same time, direct government investments in care services, from childcare to long-term care, could generate more than 180 million jobs in the region by 2035.
The report recommends lifelong learning so that even older adults – who typically give up Internet use after age 75 – can adapt to the digital transition and continue using new technologies.
“[T]he right response to demographic shifts in this region would make a difference to the world over,” the report says.
For Asia-Pacific, today's challenge is no longer managing population growth, but ensuring that people in an increasingly aging society can live with dignity and a sense of fulfilment, including in the workplace.
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04/10/2023 18:52
