BJP flushed with money as crucial state elections are set for April
About 174 million voters will cast their ballot in the coming weeks in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Pondicherry. The results will be announced together on 4 May. These elections are crucial for the national balance of power, as these areas tend to be less favourable to Modi’s ruling party. In Kerala Mamata Banerjee is seeking a fourth term, reaching out to secure the Christian vote.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Voting will take place in April to pick about 800 seats in state assemblies in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Pondicherry.
These elections are an important test to measure the strength of India’s opposition parties and the level of support for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in traditionally less favourable. Areas.
Approximately 174 million people are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections for state assemblies with results set to be released at the same time on 4 May.
In Assam, the main contest is between the country’s two main coalitions: the BJP's National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and the Indian National Congress (INC), whose campaign has been focused on the rights of indigenous peoples and flood management.
The NDA is running on a platform centred on development and reforms such as the National Register of Citizens (NRC), a highly controversial project aimed at identifying and deporting illegal immigrants.
Elections in Pondicherry are also characterised by a two-way race, with the incumbent party, the All India NR Congress, in alliance with the BJP, is considered the favourite over the left-wing INC-DMK coalition.
In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) faces discontent with the incumbent government, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to be on the rise, alongside a BJP that is seeking to expand its hitherto limited presence.
The focus of the election campaign is on the minority vote, especially among Muslims and Christians, who are seen as crucial to victory.
While the Muslim community, mainly present in the northern part of the state, is expected to vote predominantly for the UDF, Christians, around 18 per cent of the population, could be influenced by regional factors, such as the crisis in education, internal tensions within the Syro-Malabar Christian community, and the Munambam land affair, a dispute between the Christian and Muslim communities over land.
According to analysts, the Christian community, historically close to the UDF, could partially shift its vote toward the LDF or the BJP, who have addressed these issues during the election campaign to win over crucial voters.
In West Bengal, current Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress is seeking a fourth term, following her landslide victory in 2021, which she achieved thanks in part to welfare policies such as the Lakshmir Bhandar programme for women and plans to promote rural employment.
In Tamil Nadu, the entry of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by Tamil actor Vijay, and the Naam Tamizhar Katchi will complicate the race, although the main contest remains between the two alliances led by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
These elections represent the second round of voting held in places where the Special Intensive Review (SIR) process has been completed, a campaign undertaken by the Election Commission of India to verify citizens' identities and update the voter rolls.
This operation has been heavily criticised. The commission has yet to provide explanations for some anomalies that emerged during the review, including a lower sex ratio in most states except Tamil Nadu and a high number of cancellations compared to the estimated adult population.
The SIR factor could have repercussions on the results in West Bengal, where approximately six million people are still ineligible to vote due to "logical discrepancies" in their applications, which are currently being reviewed by court officials.
With the exception of Assam, in the other states where elections will take place, the ruling BJP has less influence, and the elections will be decided primarily over the performance of state governments and local issues.
For this reason, these elections are significant since these states represent the largest bloc of ideological opposition to the BJP in the country.
The results will reveal a lot about the level of political polarisation India has experienced over the past five years and provide insight into the current political power relations in the country.
Party funding is going to have an impact on the outcome of these elections, since a clear gap exists.
According to the latest report published by the Association of Democratic Reforms, between 2024 and 2025, the BJP received up to ten times more money than all other parties, for a total of more than half a billion dollars.
The distribution of donations is also significant: Delhi is the most generous, followed by the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Karnataka.
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