Bangkok: Natthaphong's pragmatic shift

The People's Party, heir to Move Forward in the progressive camp, leads the polls for tomorrow's vote in Thailand. But it is taking a more moderate line towards the monarchy and the elite to avoid facing dissolution, as happened to its predecessors.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) - The latest political polls in Thailand seem to indicate that in tomorrow's elections, the People's Party could repeat the success of its predecessor, the progressive Move Forward party, which won the 2023 elections.

According to a national survey, leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut is the frontrunner with about 35% of the vote, followed by Yodchanan Wongsawat of Pheu Thai, a party long controlled by the Shinawatra family, and Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai, who in mid-December, after being elected head of a minority government, called for elections hoping to capitalise on his popularity, which had grown during the conflict with Cambodia.

Supported by young people hoping for change after nine years of direct or indirect military rule, Move Forward, led by young manager Pita Limjaroenrat, won 151 seats in 2023, compared to 141 for Pheu Thai and 51 for Bhumjaithai. However, it was then prevented from forming a government due to opposition from the Senate, whose members are appointed by the army. The Constitutional Court then dissolved the Move Forward party in 2024, and its seats in Parliament were largely inherited by the People's Party.

Many observers are wondering whether the same thing will happen again. Despite what the polls say, outgoing Prime Minister Anutin's Bhumjaithai party enjoys the support of the monarchist establishment, and could therefore easily find itself in a prominent position in negotiations to form the next executive. At the same time, it seems clear that Pheu Thai is experiencing progressive marginalisation after the scandal that engulfed Paetongtarn Shinawatra: the prime minister resigned last August after the release of an audio recording of a phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which the prime minister complained about the conduct of Thai generals. The current prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, said at the start of the election campaign: ‘If the Thai people want a government chosen by Cambodia, then go ahead and vote for those two parties.’

Meanwhile, however, the People's Party has backtracked on its promises to amend the controversial lèse-majesté law, on which Move Forward had focused. This law has long been criticised by various human rights groups because it is used by the establishment to silence political opponents.

Some observers argue that the People's Party, compared to Move Forward, has adopted a pragmatic strategy of accommodation towards the elites. Not only did the party support Bhumjaithai in forming a government in September, despite having been political opponents until then, but it also shifted the focus of its rhetoric from feelings of hope to those of fear, leveraging the corruption of the establishment and the shady dealings of some of its members. This reorientation is also evident in the choice of candidates: activists have been relegated to the sidelines, while entrepreneurs and government officials have risen through the party ranks.

Some believe this is a consequence of the state's continued repression of progressive movements calling for a shift towards full democracy. Move Forward itself was born from the ashes of Future Forward, a party linked to student and pro-democracy movements fighting against the military regime of General Prayut Chan-o-cha. Future Forward was dissolved in February 2020 by the Constitutional Court, seen as the guarantor of the pro-military and pro-monarchy elites.

The current leader of the People's Party, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, 38, the son of a real estate magnate, is a computer engineer who joined Future Forward in 2018 and said in a September interview: "The fundamental problems are the same as they were 20 years ago. We must bring full democracy to our country'. According to commentators, he agreed to support Anutin's government in exchange for elections and a referendum on the constitution, arguing that it was a choice that “benefits the country rather than our popularity”. Natthaphong, unlike his predecessors, is less popular among young people, but has a more pragmatic and balanced approach. In tomorrow's elections, voters will also participate in a constitutional referendum, in which they will be asked whether or not they approve of the start of the process of drafting a new constitution.

At present, it seems unlikely that the progressive party will be able to win the seats needed in the House of Representatives to form a government without the support of other smaller parties. According to Chaiyan Ratchakul, a political scientist at Phayao University, interviewed by the Bangkok Post, there are three possible scenarios: a coalition between the People's Party and Pheu Thai, an alliance between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai with the People's Party in opposition, or a partnership between the People's Party and Bhumjaithai, although this possibility is considered unlikely. On the contrary, the first scenario is likely to materialise, but it cannot be ruled out that it could then lead to a new realignment of power between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai.

• Thailand
• People's Party
• Move Forward
• progressives
• elections
• 8 February