Myanmar exhausted by war five years after a military coup

The country is still embroiled in a civil war that has devastated the economy, displaced millions, and fragmented territorial control. Despite a show of strength in the recent elections, the military junta controls just 40 per cent of the territory. More than 20,000 opponents remain in prison, including Aung San Suu Kyi. Divisions among ethnic militias are rife. Disillusioned, the civilian population is paying the highest price.

Yangon (AsiaNews) – Five years after the 2021 military coup, the situation in Myanmar remains dire. Five years of civil war have exhausted the entire population and caused an exodus of young people to other Southeast Asian countries, while the military junta, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, controls less than 40 per cent of the territory.

It is estimated that more than five million people have been displaced in the country. In several rural areas, landmines surround fields and small towns, preventing people from returning to their villages, much less to their homes, which in most cases have been razed to the ground by fires or bombings.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners claims that over 30,000 people have been arrested since the beginning of the conflict, 22,778 of whom remain in prison, including democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

She was arrested shortly before the inauguration of parliament. Her party, the National League for Democracy, had won a landslide in the November 2020 elections, the country's last democratic poll, which was very different from the one held by the junta between 28 December and 25 January.

“Today, no one knows where she is. She is denied access to family, lawyers, doctors, and the outside world,” her youngest son, Kim Aris, wrote on social media, highlighting the atrocities the generals have committed against the people of Myanmar.

According to the United Nations, during the elections, Myanmar’s air force carried out at least 408 airstrikes, killing at least 170 civilians. During the same period, some 400 people were arrested for criticising the electoral process.

Several sources within the country had also reported threats and pressure to get people to vote, under penalty of exclusion from public services, such as education and healthcare, which have been struggling since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the past five years, Myanmar’s economy has lost US$ 100 billion. The gains of a decade of democratic transition have been swept away, and Myanmar is back under China's influence, with Beijing continuing to support the regime by resupplying it with weapons to protect its infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats maintain contact with groups fighting against the military.

According to the UN, it will take years before the GDP returns to pre-2020 levels.

With the imprisonment of Aung San Suu Kyi, the leadership of democratic forces, united on the ground under the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), passed to the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, made up of former lawmakers from the National League for Democracy.

But at present, the latter represents primarily the diaspora, while those who remain in the country are experiencing a certain disillusionment vis-à-vis the NUG since it lacks a strong leadership, has not achieved significant international recognition, has failed to gain the support of ethnic armed groups, and has been criticised for its lack of financial transparency.

Doctors and teachers who had joined the Civil Disobedience Movement have not received financial support. Instead, the NUG asked them to boycott the elections, once again risking their lives and those of their families.

There is no consensus among the resistance forces, especially among the ethnic armed groups fighting for greater autonomy and taking advantage of the situation to create independent microstates.

In Rakhine, militias have formed autonomous administrations without coordination, a sign that the dream of a federal Myanmar is still distant, as is the end of the fighting.

Sources in Myanmar report that the civilian population is being encouraged to concentrate in urban centres, while fighting continues in rural areas and forests. This situation has set the country back about 70 years.

• myanmar
• coup
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• 2021
• civil war
• people’s defence forces
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• resistance
• national unity government nug
• military
• aung san suu kyi