COVID-19 could kill more than a million Chinese in 2023
A study by Health Metrics and Evaluation expects infections and deaths to reach a peak in early April. The coming Lunar New Year festivities are a source of concern. The ineffectiveness of domestic vaccines and the low vaccination rate among seniors weigh heavily. The situation threatens China’s economic recovery.
Beijing (AsiaNews) – China's sudden decision to lift strict COVID-19 restrictions, following widespread protests, could lead to more than a million deaths in 2023, this according to research by the US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
In a study published in July, the School of Public Health at Fudan University in Shanghai forecast an even worse scenario: 1.55 million deaths over a six month period if restrictions are lifted.
The US research group expects a peak of deaths in early April, with a third of China’s 1.4 billion population infected and deaths numbering 322,000.
Above all, it is feared that infections could surge next month during the Lunar New Year holidays.
Since the government lifted many coronavirus containment measures ten days ago, the country’s health authorities have not reported any deaths. Officially, the death count stands at 5,235.
According to Worldometer, the US holds the record for deaths, 1.1 million in almost three years, followed by India (530,000), Russia (392,000) and Mexico (330,000).
In making its predictions, IHME considered certain issues, such as China’s large pool of susceptible people, less effective vaccines, and the low vaccination rate among people 80 and over (about eight million in this age group are unvaccinated).
What is more, about 164 million people in China have diabetes, a risk factor for infection.
The vaccination situation is so bad that many Chinese have opted to pay to get vaccinated in Macau with the German-made BioNTech.
A high number of infections and victims, together with strong pressure on the country’s health system, risk damping the hopes the authorities have to quickly reboot China’s economy, which is experiencing its worst period in the last 30 years.
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