Central Asia caught between Putin and Xi

Beijing's business interests in the region – which have grown exponentially with the war in Ukraine – now exceed billion, twice that of Moscow. China supports trade with the conviction that improving living standards can avert any danger of conflict, as seen with the border agreements between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Moscow (AsiaNews) - Russia is gradually losing its influence in its ‘backyard’ of Central Asia, both in economic and trade relations and in other political, social and cultural fields, and sinologist Marina Rudjak of Heidelberg University reflects on these circumstances in a report on the television channel Currentime.

In early October, speaking at the "Central Asia - Russia‘ summit in Dushanbe, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphatically proclaimed that Moscow's trade balance with the five Central Asian countries exceeds billion, calling it ’not a bad result‘, but immediately adding that with Belarus alone the mutual account exceeds billion, and that therefore ’we need to increase our figures".

According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, Russia is in fact ceding these territories to China at all levels, considering that Beijing's business in the region is double that of Russia, exceeding billion, diametrically reversing the situation in its favour compared to just a few years ago and especially during the three years of the Russian war in Ukraine.

This is not just about transport and commercial cargo deliveries: China is investing and building a lot of infrastructure in all these countries, and also in others that were more dependent on Russia, in order to be able to trade freely with Europe without having to depend on the Kremlin's political and military upheavals.

According to Rudjak, looking also at the relations between Putin and Xi Jinping in recent years on the issue of Central Asia, “the competition between them is now evident”, even if this is not reflected in the Chinese press, in order to avoid further complicating Russian-Chinese relations.

Formally, Beijing also supports Moscow with regard to the war and has no interest in its defeat, but it certainly does not want it to regain its ability to influence decisions in Central Asia, given that ‘China seeks stability above all else’ and the last thing it needs are ‘regional wars’, especially in areas bordering its own territories.

China supports trade in Central Asia with the conviction that improving living standards can avert any danger of conflict between the countries themselves, as we have seen in recent years, especially with the border agreements between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and even more so with Russia looming large over northern Kazakhstan in particular.

It is therefore difficult to define the relationship between Russia and China adequately, whether they are allies, partners or competitors. Experts in the field point out that there are over 4,000 kilometres of border between the two countries, so they are first and foremost “neighbours”, between whom there have been conflicts in the past. China must always exercise great control and maintain a balance with the Russians in order to avoid very dangerous upheavals.

Therefore, relations between Putin and Xi are always marked by great respect and friendship, and the Chinese will always try to support the Russians economically, at least as much as is necessary to keep them happy. Beijing exports many goods to Russia, but always tries to avoid Western sanctions, perhaps circumventing them through third countries.

Therefore, even an open confrontation over control of Central Asia is unlikely, according to Rudjak, and “over the last twenty years, every effort has been made to avoid it, but if Moscow's appetite in this area were to be reawakened, China would support financial and military technologies in the region”. .

Another issue concerns the huge labour shortage in Russia, precisely because of the increasing pressure on migrants from Central Asia, who could eventually be replaced by the Chinese, who certainly have no shortage of surplus labour, starting with the far eastern regions. And in this case too, China would rebalance the situation in its favour with Russia, which is destined to cede Asia to its historic competitor.