Iraqi and Lebanese militias staying away from Iran-Israel war
Developed by Iran for 20 years as a deterrent, the "Axis of Resistance" is keeping a low profile in this war. From the Iraqi prime minister to the religious leader al-Sadr, the order is to "silence" the "reckless voices" that want to start a war. At least 20 Muslim and Arab nations sign a statement for a nuclear-free Middle East "without exceptions" (a reference to Israel).
Baghdad (AsiaNews) – In the war Israel launched against Iran on 13 June, with a massive military action by the Jewish state against a sovereign country not seen for some time, one factor on which Tehran has relied for years as a pillar of strength and deterrence is missing, namely the "Axis of Resistance" that emerged after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Some 20 years later, the Iran-led informal coalition began to fall apart and lose effectiveness following Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, in response to the attack of 7 October.
Analysts note that the Islamic Republic has over the decades developed and financed a network of militant groups to avoid having to fight directly. These groups have been described as terrorist by some or fighting militias by others.
However, at present, as it comes under attack in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, Iran cannot count on the help of Hezbollah or other weakened movements to fight alongside their “godfather”.
Tehran’s network
For years, the Israeli military has been confronted with organisations supported, financed or controlled by Iran, which is now the primary target of the war.
Since the 1979 revolution, Tehran has invested efforts and resources to spread its ideology among the Shia populations of the Middle East, building a network of paramilitary or armed groups, as well as recruit Sunnis.
In recent decades, the Al Quds Force, a special unit of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (Pasdaran), focused on supporting these organisations through financial aid, weapons and training, sometimes even in Iran itself.
Their presence has helped to discourage and, from an Iranian perspective, avert any invasion or direct attack by the West to overthrow Iran’s clerical regime.
However, now that Israel's firepower is directed against Iran itself, these movements have disappeared: some, like Hezbollah, have been severely weakened by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, while others seem to be "contained" by the governments of the countries that host them, so that they are staying out of the all-out fight with devastating consequences.
Now, the Islamic Republic presently seems forced to rely exclusively on its own military power.
According to IDF estimates from October 2024, Hezbollah is left with 30 per cent of its firepower compared to the period before the conflict.
In the last six months, two of the three key positions at the top of the country, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, have shown that they intend to disarm Hezbollah and avoid a war with Israel.
Houthi rebels in Yemen are the only pro-Iranian group that have continued to fight alongside Tehran with attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, but their offensive capabilities are limited by range and size and their role in recent days has been marginal.
Post-Saddam Iraq
Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iran has backed Shia militias in the neighbouring country with weapons and funding, with the aim of extending its influence in the region.
Over the years, these groups in Tehran’s pay have mainly targeted the United States, although in some instances they have also turned their weapons against Israel after 7 October 2023 with the attack by Hamas and the war in Gaza.
However, the response of the Jewish state at war on multiple fronts – from Syria and Yemen to Lebanon and Iran – and growing internal and external pressure have effectively stopped these operations.
Since 2014, militias in Iraq have operated under an umbrella organisation known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), firing rockets at US troops and fighting the Islamic State group when it was at its peak.
For at least two years, in 2023 and 2024, the militias have been involved in the multi-front conflict, launching drones against Israel and targeting the Golan Heights and Eilat.
In October 2024, two Israeli soldiers (IDF) were killed in a drone strike launched by pro-Tehran militias.
However, towards the end of the year, and even before the fragile truce in Gaza was signed that lasted a few weeks, the armed groups froze operations against the US and Israel, part of an agreement with the Iraqi government.
A senior official with the al-Nujaba militia, one of the key Iraqi groups, told the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar that a “deal” was reached in December to halt military activities.
According to Arab media, this is linked to the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the simultaneous fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, an ally of Iran.
On 14 June, Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Iraq sent a message similar to the one Lebanon sent to Hezbollah: stay out of the war between Israel and Iran.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani spoke with militia leaders while the influential Shia leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, waded into the foray as well, pressuring militias to stop the operations.
“Iraq and its people do not need new wars,” wrote the Shia leader on 13 June. “We ask for the reckless voices that call for Iraq's involvement in the war to be silenced and for people to listen to the voice of wisdom and the directives of religious leaders.”
Arabs and Muslims against the atomic bomb
Meanwhile, at least 20 Arab and Muslim nations, including Qatar, Oman and Pakistan (the latter a nuclear power), have called for the creation of a "nuclear-weapon-free zone" in the Middle East.
In a joint statement, the signatories stressed “the urgent necessity of establishing a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction, which shall apply to all States in the region without exception”.
Other countries that signed are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Turkey.
Pakistan, the only Muslim-majority country to possess the atomic bomb and not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), stands out.
Behind the appeal there is also the intention to involve the Jewish state in the game, because if Iran is accused of pursuing the atomic bomb, the only country in the Middle East that actually possesses it is Israel.
This is a controversial issue because the Israeli government has never acknowledged that it has nuclear weapons and the size of its arsenal is a secret.
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02/02/2022 15:35
