Islamabad's two-front war: open conflict with Kabul, steady with Tehran
Pakistani rockets continue to strike Taliban political and military targets in Afghanistan, with the UN reporting at least 66,000 people displaced and dozens of civilians killed. Pakistan also faces anger from its own Shia community following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli attacks against Iran.
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Islamabad (AsiaNews) – At least 66,000 Afghans have been displaced by the armed conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which broke out a day before Israel and the United States attacked Iran.
The United Nations reported that at least 42 civilians were killed and 104 wounded in "indirect fire in cross-border clashes" between 26 February and 2 March.
The extremely volatile situation is increasingly at risk of becoming intertwined with the Middle East conflict, with the war spreading across South Asia.
Over the past week, Pakistan has launched air-to-ground rockets against Afghan military bases, directly targeting the Taliban government sites.
Last night, the Pakistani Air Force released video of the operation against the headquarters of the 205th Corps of the Afghan Islamic National Army in Kandahar, southern Afghanistan, home to the Taliban faction led by religious leader Hibatullah Akhundzada. The Taliban’s "pragmatic" wing, led by the Haqqani network, is based in Kabul.
Tensions between the two factions are well known. While the former continues to impose bans and restrictions on the population, particularly women, and concentrate power in its own hands, the latter favours easing religious restrictions to promote international involvement.
Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said that successful strikes were carried out on the Bagram air base, north of Kabul. Other Pakistani security sources said that they destroyed a weapons depot in Jalalabad and a military base in Nangarhar Province.
Afghan police reported that the army was joined by more than 4,000 young people from Panjshir, a northern region that had long opposed the Taliban regime and tried to wage armed opposition against the Pashtun majority.
Pakistan's military action, which appears to be aimed at eliminating Taliban leaders, comes after years of tension and repeated violent incidents interspersed by fragile ceasefires.
Since the Taliban entered Kabul in August 2021, regaining control of the country after two decades of war, armed groups in the region have regained strength, striking Pakistan's security forces and institutions with increasing frequency and targeted attacks.
One of the main perpetrators of these attacks is Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban, which seeks to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan.
The Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), which opposes the Taliban, accusing them of being ideologically too soft, has also carried out a series of deadly attacks, with more suicide attacks in recent weeks, including in the Pakistani capital, where such violence had not occurred for some time.
As indicated by various periodic United Nations reports, all these armed groups have found refuge and financial support in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
In addition to the TTP, analysts also report the presence of al-Qaeda, which continues to benefit from Taliban protection and plays a supporting role to other organisations, providing training and military advice, particularly to the TTP.
UN reports also note that al-Qaeda still aspires to carry out attacks on an international scale with high media impact.
Despite military pressure from the Taliban, IS-K continues to maintain significant operational capacity and continues to develop cell networks in the region, with the aim of carrying out regional attacks.
The report also notes the presence of other jihadi groups, including the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), composed largely of Uyghur militants, and groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed, linked to jihadism in Kashmir, the region disputed between Pakistan and India.
There are also fears that jihadi fighters released in Syria could move back to Central Asia, where many of them come from, and from there reach northern Afghanistan.
Another well-known armed group, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), is present in Pakistan’s Balochistan, which is part of a wider region divided with Iran and Afghanistan.
The BLA, which seeks independence, has also conducted increasingly sophisticated attacks against Pakistani security forces in recent years.
The war pitting Iran against Israel and the United States further complicates the situation for Islamabad, not only because Pakistan, home to the second-largest Shia community in the world after Iran, finds itself facing extremely violent conflicts along two different borders, but also because it risks being directly dragged into the war against Iran, after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently signed a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia.
Although Iran and Pakistan have worked in the past to counter Balochi separatism, the two countries also launched a series of cross-border attacks against each other in January 2024 with missiles and drones, killing civilians, including children.
In the days following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination, thousands of Pakistani Shias took to the streets in several cities to protest. In Karachi, protesters stormed the US consulate. Like in Lahore, non-essential personnel was evacuated.
Protests and clashes with police have resulted in at least 26 deaths. Shia religious leaders have declared days of mourning and called for further demonstrations.
These protests are a challenge to the government in Islamabad, which had boosted diplomatic ties with Washington in recent months, despite being a close ally of China. Pakistan gets most of its weapons from China, and manufactures low-cost Chinese JF-17 fighter jets that proved their effectiveness in the brief conflict that erupted with India in May 2025.
Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met in person with US President Donald Trump last summer, while the government in Islamabad was strengthening military ties with Saudi Arabia.
Despite opposing the Iran-Israel-US war for reasons of economic stability, Riyadh has been forced to defend itself from recent Iranian attacks, which span the whole region, designed to elicit diplomatic action and ensure the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Although historically linked to Iran also on the religious level, Pakistan must consider its position taking into account its alliances with the United States and the Gulf countries.
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