Israeli strike Tyre and Aoun's 'crazy gamble' on negotiations
Scores have died in Israeli attacks in the south of the country, including across the Litani River. Israel aims to expand the territory it controls by up to 30 kilometres. So far, the capital, Beirut, has been spared, since the United States has designated it “off-limits”. A new round of talks is scheduled for 2 and 3 June in Washington, where the Lebanese delegation will insist on the need for an immediate and simultaneous cessation of hostilities.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – On the first day of Eid al-Adha, on Wednesday, immediately following the evening news, Al-Jadid, one of Lebanon's most-watched television channels, broadcast . . . the "fortune teller" Leila Albdel Massih. This speaks volumes about the confusion into which Hezbollah's war against Iran has plunged the country.
Three months after Iran's armed wing launched its offensive against Israel on 2 March, and while an agreement between Washington and Tehran, which is supposed to include Lebanon, continues to be announced, denied, and then revived, the Lebanese people live in total uncertainty about what awaits their homeland.
They live in fear of both the indefinite continuation of the war, which saw scores killed yesterday, and of an ambiguous agreement that would not free them from Hezbollah's arrogance.
What is certain is that while only a part of the country, the South, is directly affected by ground fighting, the whole of Lebanon is impacted by the indirect consequences of the war.
A constantly and increasing flow of displaced persons is now officially estimated at 1.2 million, with its almost insurmountable social and human consequences, the destruction of entire villages, economic losses in the billions, a rise in crime and sectarian tensions, a drop in projected budget revenues and austerity policies in the public sector, a sharp slowdown in key sectors such as restaurants and hotels, impoverishment and unemployment, impunity for profiteers, the continued immoral freezing of bank deposits, etc.
Fortunately, the port and international airport of Beirut are operating normally, thanks to a red line drawn by Washington. But for the Eid al-Adha festival, which began on Wednesday, only diaspora Lebanese have come home.
Evacuation order for Tyre!
In southern Lebanon, ground clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, along with airstrikes, have intensified over the past week. Aside from the close quarters fighting, residents of the major coastal city of Tyre (population approximately 150,000), with its three Palestinian refugee camps, and of Nabatiyeh, received evacuation orders yesterday, triggering dramatic mass exoduses, particularly towards Sidon and Beirut.
In Tyre, only a small part of the city, including its Christian quarter, is not designated as a red zone for evacuation, according to the map published by the Israeli army. Massive Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed at least nine people, in addition to the 34 deaths recorded since Monday.
Yesterday’s airstrikes targeting certain objectives in Tyre are believed to be a prelude to advances north of the Yellow Line and the Litani River. Israel has reportedly already begun recalling its reservists and bringing in reinforcements to southern Lebanon, in preparation for expanding the ground operation.
Diplomatic sources cited in the press indicate that Israel is considering extending its ground presence up to 30 kilometres inside Lebanese territory, to Nabatiyeh and the surrounding hills.
These same sources report fears of surprise Israeli strikes, as Israel believes Hezbollah has developed fibre-optic guided drones with a range of 25 to 30 kilometres, against which it has yet to find a countermeasure.
However, US guarantees aimed at keeping Beirut and its southern suburbs out of the conflict and preventing any escalation still hold, according to Lebanese political sources.
President Joseph Aoun's “crazy gamble”
Politically, most Lebanese people and political forces are placing their hope in the "crazy gamble" of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who has taken the risk of engaging in direct talks with Israel, with no other advantage than embodying state legitimacy to which almost all Lebanese subscribe, openly or secretly, and which enjoys the support of the United States and Europe.
In this, the Lebanese government is backed by President Trump, who has already closely followed three rounds of direct talks between the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington and who personally chaired the second of these meetings in the Oval Office.
Tomorrow, Lebanese and Israeli military delegations are expected to meet at the Pentagon, under US mediation, for a security-focused meeting, which comes just before a fourth round of political discussions, scheduled for 2 and 3 June at the State Department.
Israel is reportedly seeking to impose the creation of a joint operations room to coordinate Hezbollah’s disarmament. The Lebanese delegation, for its part, has instructions to stress the need for an immediate and simultaneous cessation of hostilities, its only tool to silence Hezbollah.
According to an expert close to the Washington negotiations, speaking to AsiaNews on condition of anonymity, Lebanon will try to convince Israel to abandon its plans to conquer new portions of its territory, arguing that doing so would expose it to greater military risks.
This source added that Hezbollah is prepared to do whatever it takes to inflict maximum casualties on the Israeli army, even though current estimates suggest that one Israeli soldier is killed for every 20 to 30 Shia fighters.
Substituting diplomacy for war
Circles around President Aoun insist that Lebanon's interest remains in getting diplomacy to replace war, securing a complete ceasefire, convincing Hezbollah that this path is the most effective for its own cause, despite the military gains it has made.
The President’s Office still wants to convince the pro-Iranian party, divided on this issue between hardliners and moderates, that the asymmetric war it is waging against Israel will never yield the results it did in 2000, with Israel's withdrawal from the border strip it then occupied.
Those close to President Joseph Aoun assert that he is acutely aware of the human cost of a clash between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah. He knows that part of the troops will remain loyal and obey orders, even with a heavy heart, but he also knows that the confrontation will have the bitter taste of a fratricidal conflict that will fracture the country, something he is trying to avoid at all costs.
The return to calm in Lebanon is thus part of a race against time between Washington and Tehran. The Americans want things to go back to normal, but will accept for Israel to retain control of the occupied territories in the south until the complete disarmament of the Shia militia, within the framework of tripartite US-Israeli-Lebanese cooperation.
This is why the Israeli army is seeking to seize as much Lebanese territory as possible for negotiation. Among the Lebanese public, there is fear of a premature agreement that would allow Hezbollah to claim victory and allow the party to keep a military capability that rivals that of the state and to look down on it.
Iran, for its part, is demanding in its negotiations with the United States that the Lebanese front be included in the terms of an agreement, something the US but especially Israel absolutely refuse, considering the continued presence of Hezbollah's weapons non-negotiable.
This party, meanwhile, continues to threaten the Lebanese state, sometimes with street protests, in order to bring down the government, sometimes with the threat of overthrowing the state itself – something that is beyond its power, but which continues to influence public opinion and revive fears of a new civil war.
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