Maldives: referendum rejected and opposition-led local councils – a warning sign for Muizzu

68.7% of voters rejected the constitutional reform sought by the president to unify electoral processes, but the ruling party – which came to power in 2023 on an anti-India campaign – failed to win a single city in the local elections. Civil society played a decisive role in the ‘no’ campaign. The result highlights urban discontent and raises questions about the political stability of the executive halfway through its term.

Malé (AsiaNews) – A double election round took place on Saturday 11 April for the Maldivian population, who were called to the polls for local elections in five cities and for the constitutional referendum promoted by the incumbent president, Mohamed Muizzu, who won the last presidential elections in 2023 thanks to an ‘anti-India’ political campaign that was largely oriented towards Beijing.

The results, however, were unfavourable to the ruling party: the opposition, represented by the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), retained a majority in all municipal councils, and the referendum proposal, which called for presidential and parliamentary elections to be held simultaneously, was rejected with 68.73% of the vote, against 31.27% in favour. Voter turnout reached 74%, one of the highest levels in the country’s history.

The ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) attributed the defeat to the timing of the local elections. According to several observers, this coincidence mobilised a ‘silent majority’ of voters unaffiliated with any party but opposed to the proposed reform.

The last constitutional referendum for Maldivian citizens was held in 2007, when the population was asked to choose between a presidential and a parliamentary system.

The referendum proposed by Muizzu aimed to amend the Constitution to allow presidential and parliamentary elections to be held simultaneously. According to the government, the reform would have saved millions of dollars, increased turnout and put an end to continuous election campaigns, given that under the current system voters cast their ballots twice within six months: in September for the president and in April for parliament.

However, the proposal was strongly criticised by civil society and the opposition, who were convinced that the real aim was to concentrate the conquest of the presidency and the parliamentary majority into a single election, facilitating the use of state resources and tools of influence, such as jobs and public contracts. Transparency Maldives, an organisation committed to promoting good governance and fighting corruption, had also warned that the reform could encourage vote-buying and increase the misuse of public resources in the absence of adequate controls.

According to some commentators, the outcome of the referendum is the result of efforts by civil society rather than those of the political opposition. The decisive ‘no’ campaign, called Nufenay (‘no’), was led by lawyers, former judges, economists and activists, who organised public debates and raised awareness among large sections of the electorate about the possible consequences of the reform.

The result can be seen as a wake-up call for President Muizzu, halfway through his term. Furthermore, in the capital Malé, turnout was almost 20 percentage points lower than the national average and that in rural areas, signalling a growing divide in political engagement between different parts of the country.

MDP mayors retained their seats in all five cities concerned (Malé, Addu, Fuvahmulah, Kulhudhuffushi and Thinadhoo), whilst of the 52 seats up for grabs on the municipal councils, the PNC won only six. Despite an intense election campaign by the president and his party, urban centres proved particularly critical of the government’s performance.

Many were quick to draw parallels with a significant precedent from 2021, when the MDP, then in government and led by President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, lost its majority in the municipal councils, foreshadowing its defeat in the 2023 presidential elections.

Today, analysts are wondering whether a similar fate might await the PNC and Muizzu’s presidency. However, the opposition’s victory appears less solid than the results might suggest. The MDP entered the elections divided into four factions, linked to prominent figures such as former presidents Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018–2023) and Mohamed Nasheed (2008–2012), as well as former Minister of Economy Fayaz Ismail and former Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulla Shahid, the party’s current leader.

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