by Fady Noun

According to UNHCR, in just under nine months, over 200,000 have chosen to return. Some for the first time since 2011. For the authorities in Beirut, the departures “lighten” the Land of the Cedars from a “substantial demographic burden”. But there is also a counter-exodus: from Alawites fleeing the coast to Christians who dream of leaving after the attack on the church in Damascus.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - Unexpected, spontaneous and massive, a ‘virtuous spiral’ of repatriations of Syrian refugees and migrants from Lebanon has been underway since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus on 8 December 2024.

This is confirmed by data and observations from experts in the field, starting with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR): in just under nine months, more than 200,000 Syrians have chosen to return to their country of origin, some of whom are setting foot there “for the first time since 2011”, according to the UN agency.

Fifty-five-year-old Syrian Hassan Attar (not his real name, to protect his anonymity), a handyman in a company in Mount Lebanon who has been living in Lebanon for over twenty years, has started packing his bags. His life plan for the near future is already in place.

Originally from Idlib, following the example of many Syrian families he knows who have already taken the step, in a few days he will return to his homeland “with a heart full of emotion”, accompanied by his wife and five children, the last two of whom were born in Lebanon.

His children's education

He recently travelled to Idlib, in northern Syria, for the first time on a sort of ‘exploratory’ mission. He has accommodation and relatives in the city. His main motivation is his children's education. ‘No sacrifice is too great to ensure they receive an education,’ the man tells AsiaNews. Yes, his house in Idlib does indeed need “repair”, he admits, because ‘it was damaged by the 2023 earthquake in Turkey’. Nevertheless, he hopes to be able to repair it ‘little by little’.

Lebanon, however, is far from becoming secondary. Hassan will return there after settling his family and, thanks to his work permit, will continue to earn a living in his adopted country. His eldest son, at least that is the hope, will become ‘a soldier or a general security agent’.

The surprising figure of 200,000 repatriations is welcomed by the leaders and government officials in Beirut. This data was communicated to them by Kelly Clements, an American diplomat and number two at the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, at the end of a five-day tour of Syria and Lebanon.

‘I even believe we have exceeded 200,000,’ Tarek Mitri, former environment minister in Najib Mikati's government and now deputy prime minister in charge of managing relations between Beirut and Damascus, told AsiaNews, after meeting with his Syrian counterpart.

These returns are ‘welcome,’ he continues, because they “lighten” the country of the Cedars from a ‘substantial demographic burden’ that weighed on all infrastructure, but ‘it is still too early to measure the impact,’ says the long-time politician and intellectual.

Lebanese plan for return

To facilitate these returns, the Beirut government has developed a scheme that provides financial assistance of 0 for each refugee who wishes to leave, in addition to exemption from fines for illegal residence. In return, candidates undertake not to return to Lebanon as asylum seekers.

Valid until the end of September, these exemptions could be extended until the end of the year, according to a General Security source. In the meantime, their effect on departure intentions is “magical”, assures Hassan Attar, who predicts “a snowball effect thanks to the exemptions provided by General Security at the borders, the rather reassuring news from people who have already taken the plunge, not to mention the revaluation of the Syrian pound against the dollar”. The latter, in fact, has seen a 67% increase in its value since the fall of the Assad regime.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, assures Kelly Clements, ‘is accompanying this process by providing support to returnees, ranging from minor repairs to homes to financial assistance and the provision of basic necessities’.

Two UNHCR antennas have been installed in Idlib and at the Joussy crossing on the border between Lebanon and Syria, specifically to help rebuild civil status documents and record the needs and requirements of returning refugees.

However, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), this aid remains ‘insufficient’. Quoted by journalist Sylviane Zehil on the Beyrouth360 website, Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the NRC, who visited Syria in August, believes that ‘mass returns remain precarious in part’ and are taking place ‘in a context of total absence of services: paralysed hospitals, overcrowded schools, destroyed water and electricity networks,’ Egeland asserts. The gap is enormous: of the .2 billion needed for the humanitarian response by 2025, only 4 million has been paid. In other words, ‘87% of needs remain unmet’.

Moreover, the report notes that, in general, most Syrian refugees remain abroad or displaced within their own country, and what should be a victory of hope therefore risks turning into a humanitarian stalemate. According to the UN, 13.5 million Syrians continue to live as refugees or internally displaced persons.

New departures

However, while countless Syrians are returning, others continue to flee. In the predominantly Druze governorate of Al-Suwayda, 192,000 people have been displaced in a few weeks due to recent bloody clashes with Bedouins.

UNICEF and NRC teams on the ground report a “desperate” need for drinking water, food and medical care, among other things. According to data provided by observers, some 30,000 Alawite Syrians fled the Syrian coast after massacres perpetrated by Islamic extremists last March.

The vast majority of them entered Lebanon through illegal routes and their exact number remains uncertain. Finally, within the Christian community, which was hit during Mass in Damascus by a suicide bombing that killed 24 people, young Syrians dream of only one thing: obtaining a passport and leaving.