NATO’s weak spots in event of Russian attack on Europe

From political divisions with Washington, which has announced troop withdrawals, to the limitations demonstrated by air and naval forces during the Middle East crisis: senior European military officers insist on the need to prepare for a possible Russian attack on a NATO country by 2030. And with the increasingly real threat of drones, military cooperation with Ukraine is being strengthened.

Brussels (AsiaNews) – According to the Politico platform, fears are growing among European military leaders that Russia could attack a NATO member state in the relatively near future.

According to Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, this could happen in 2029, whilst Estonian intelligence services are looking more towards 2030; however, experts believe that the Atlantic Alliance is not ready to face such a conflict, as demonstrated by various factors relating to the US war in Iran.

Analysts at Politico have spoken to diplomats, military personnel and experts in various fields of geopolitics, identifying at least five shortcomings that would make life very difficult for NATO countries in the event of a Russian attack.

A key factor highlighted by the Middle Eastern conflict is the shortage of ammunition and weapon supplies: the US has already used up over half of its Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, and France has warned that stocks of Aster and Mica missiles began to run low within the first two weeks of the war with Iran.

Military manufacturers Rheinmetall and MBDA report a massive surge in demand, against the backdrop of a looming shortfall. If the US continues to prioritise the Indo-Pacific region, significant resources will be diverted from Europe, which may not be enough, as some European diplomats claim.

Given that Moscow produces six to seven thousand drones a month, NATO allies would run out of air defence missiles within a few weeks, according to experts, and this is why more cost-effective alternatives to the Patriot are needed. For example, the AGR-20 laser-guided missiles, or passive defence systems such as reinforced concrete aircraft shelters.

Another factor highlighted is the weakness of the air forces, demonstrated by the fact that Iran was able to launch over 5,000 missiles and drones into the Gulf states, despite the US air campaign, showing that bombing is not enough to force Tehran to surrender. This too would drive new investment in high-precision, long-range weaponry, increasing the purchase of American AGM-88G missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometres.

The naval forces also appear insufficient, as demonstrated by Europe’s lack of participation in supporting its allies in the Persian Gulf. A striking example was the deployment at sea by Britain of the destroyer HMS Dragon, which subsequently returned to port due to a technical fault.

The Chief of the British Navy, Gwinn Jenkins, admitted in March that the Royal Navy was not ready for war, and that its allies were also lagging behind; Canada had previously reported that less than half of its fleet was combat-ready.

Experts believe that naval forces would play a key role in any conflict with Russia, engaging in the search for submarines off the northern coast of the Kola Peninsula between the White Sea and the Barents Sea, and in neutralising ships carrying Kalibr cruise missiles.

Then there is the persistent lack of unity among allies, with the war in the Middle East having exacerbated divisions within NATO. Donald Trump’s criticism of the lack of support for the United States, and now also the announcements regarding the withdrawal of American forces from European countries such as Germany, is raising questions about Washington’s position in a potential conflict with Russia.

Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes that European countries must make it clear that they will support the opening of the Strait of Hormuz only if the United States fulfils its obligations towards NATO. In his view, there is no need to continue trying to appease Trump: “The time for flattery is over.”

Finally, the “Ukraine factor” must be taken into account. A few days after the start of the war in the Middle East, Ukraine sent specialists to the region to help the Persian Gulf states repel attacks by Iranian Shahed drones, and Kyiv signed ten-year defence partnership agreements with the Gulf states.

NATO has rapidly expanded its institutional ties with Ukraine and now, according to experts, the alliance should work to create a “belt” of anti-drone capabilities closer to the Russian border as a first line of defence.

According to diplomats, the alliance could further strengthen its relationship with Ukrainian industry, including by allocating more funds to the UNITE-Brave NATO programme, through which Ukraine will transfer its innovative technologies to its allies. A European diplomat believes that Ukraine acts as a guarantor of security, and that the war with Iran has demonstrated this.