Thai government of conservative Anutin and young reformists

The Thai parliament's green light for the new prime minister after the judicial intervention on Paetongtarn Shinawatra replicated a pattern seen many times in Bangkok: the alliance between parties that are apparently irreconcilable in their programmes and leaders to oust their opponent. But the People's Party wants new elections within four months and the amendment of the Constitution used to undermine its electoral success in 2023.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) - The vote in the House of Representatives on 5 September, with 247 votes in favour out of a total of 492, gave Anutin Charnvirakul - a long-time politician, construction entrepreneur and leader of the Bhumjaithai party - the task of leading Thailand's new government.

The vote is original but also raises several doubts. Starting with the “stability” of the unprecedented alliance between a conservative and populist party and the latest political expression, the People's Party, a movement born in universities and urban areas, committed by its very nature and the content of its proposals to breaking down the cultural, social and institutional barriers that have strongly influenced the country in recent history.

Stability is the main reason given for this situation. But much more is due to the People's Party's understandable desire to govern because of its broad popular mandate and Anutin's revenge on his former allies in the Pheu Thai party.

This alliance, which until yesterday was unthinkable, comes at a time when the Thai economy requires urgent, concrete and appropriate action. In a period of stagnation, now also weighed down by Trump's tariffs, it is necessary to boost household spending power, reduce household debt, support employment and wages, and, on the external front, re-evaluate the image of the country, once an accredited mediator and now unable to resolve border disputes with Cambodia.

Certainly, the unprecedented government alliance and the obvious difficulties of Pheu Thai (with the added risk of dissolution decreed by the Constitutional Court on the basis of the “faults” of the previous prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was dismissed by the Constitutional Court) have created a new situation with a well-established pattern in Thailand: an alliance between parties that are irreconcilable in terms of their programmes and leaders, useful for ousting the opponent.

Tensions could soon resurface and spill over into the streets again, this time not led by the current supporters of the People's Party, as has been the case for at least the last five years, but by Pheu Thai supporters, who are mostly among the less economically advantaged groups of the population.

The ruling coalition's commitment to announce new elections within four months is the only certainty facing the country at the moment. Winner of the May 2023 elections, a victory then denied by the alliance of arch-rivals Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, which relegated it to the opposition, the People's Party would currently appear to be the winner, with a likely transfer of votes from Pheu Thai voters. It is no coincidence that its leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, is indicated in opinion polls as the most likely to lead the next executive, which is why Anutin is already looking for other allies to join the government.

Particularly controversial in the coalition programme is the desire to amend the Constitution to make it more appropriate to the reality of the country and its prospects. Whether this will include the controversial review of the role of the monarchy, long sought by the People's Party and a key factor in the judicial demise of their previous political expressions, is currently uncertain but could represent a new point of rupture both inside and outside Parliament.