Trump's promise on sanctions: joy in Damascus, but still many unknowns
People in Syria celebrate with fireworks the announcement by the US president. The new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who met Trump in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is seeking international legitimacy, while countries in the region are increasingly interested in restarting trade. But more than 10 years of embargo have left deep economic and social scars that will be hard to heal.
Damascus (AsiaNews) – US President Donald Trump's announcement to lift sanctions on Syria was greeted with fireworks, celebratory gunfire, and general revelries in Syria's main cities.
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the arrival of Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the (former) jihadi militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the population had high expectations regarding economic recovery.
Various statements were followed by a meeting of about half an hour between al-Sharaa and Trump, who is in Riyadh to sign a series of trade agreements with the Gulf countries. Lifting sanctions, however, and promoting the reconstruction of the country after more than 10 years of conflict will not be as immediate as the US president suggested.
First, the first sanctions imposed by the United States on Syria date back to 1979, when the US State Department listed the country among the nations that sponsor terrorism.
Further sanctions were imposed in 1986, 2003, 2004, 2011 with the start of the civil war, and finally in 2019, when the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, better known simply as the “Caesar Act”, was adopted. The latter is named after the pseudonym of a Syrian army defector who revealed how the old regime persecuted, tortured, and systematically killed its political opponents.
The Caesar Act prohibits any type of investment in Syria by third parties in the energy, aviation and construction sectors, something that has prevented the reconstruction of Syrian cities.
It is unclear which sanctions Trump was referring to in his announcement. In any case, as some US experts and politicians have pointed out in the last few hours, the executive orders that Trump makes extensive use of are not enough for the removal of most sanctions, since they require the approval of the US Congress.
Furthermore, in addition to US sanctions, Syria has also been subjected to restrictions over the years by the United Nations and the European Union (which has progressively tried to target only members of the regime to prevent the most serious consequences from falling on the population, but has not always been successful).
French President Emmanuel Macron recently welcomed Ahmed al-Sharaa in Paris, a sign that he too would like to eliminate sanctions to favour trade with Europe; for now, the EU has said that any participation in Syrian reconstruction is subject to anti-corruption rules.
Regional reactions
The countries of the region have already anticipated Syria's reintegration into the networks of global trade. The Gulf states have indicated their readiness to invest in infrastructure, after holding "technical consultations" with Syrian ministries, which have taken the first steps to strike some deals regarding the country’s ports and some electrical power infrastructure.
Earlier this month, Jordan and Syria inked an agreement to run the overland trade corridors from Aqaba on the Red Sea to Homs.
Iraq has also proposed new trade links, while Russia and the United Arab Emirates have shown interest in the rehabilitation of the gas fields in Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor.
However, Israel (which has occupied parts of the southern areas of the country, also intervening in recent sectarian clashes between Druze and Sunni Islamist groups in an attempt to keep the country divided) has expressed concern over Trump's statement.
Conversely, Turkey (a supporter of the current Syrian government and already present with its companies in northern Syria) and Saudi Arabia (which aims to exert greater political and economic influence after the country was under Iranian influence for years) are likely to gain the most benefits from doing business with Syria.
A local source told AsiaNews that the current situation raised many questions. “The people around me are so happy. But in my heart I remain wary of this decision. What will be the price to pay? Trump will not remove sanctions without something in return. Anyway, I hope this move is real. Now we have other challenges in Syria that we have to work on: hatred, revenge, sectarianism, transitional justice...”
According to the latest reports, the Syrian government plans to offer Trump access to Syrian oil, provide reassurances about Israel's security, and allow the construction of a Trump Tower in Damascus.
Impact of sanctions
Regardless of the turn of events, several humanitarian groups have long called for sanctions to be lifted because of the negative impact on the civilian population rather than on the former Syrian regime.
Several studies have long argued that sanctions reduce social development indicators (public health, food security, income redistribution, etc.), with a 24 per cent greater negative impact on vulnerable individuals like women and children.
In particular, a Carter Center report prepared by Syrian economist Samir Aita in 2020 and a survey by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia explain how, by preventing Syria from joining the international banking circuit and prohibiting it from importing products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes (so-called dual-use technologies), sanctions have condemned the Syrian population to structural poverty.
Goods that fall into the category of dual-use are often basic products for agricultural and industrial production: pesticides, fertilisers, spare parts for power plants and water pumps, agricultural machinery, prostheses, and semiconductors.
This, combined with the ban on the import of oil and its derivatives, has created a fuel shortage that has increased the prices of electricity, heating, and transport over the years.
In turn, power shortages and restrictions on the import of spare parts for water pumps have caused damage to irrigation canals, making it virtually impossible for the state to carry out repairs.
All this has affected agricultural harvests. Syria has seen a decline in the production of fruit and vegetables, but also meat, wheat, and cotton. In ten years, access to drinking water has been reduced by 40 per cent.
Shortages have pushed up food prices, forcing people to reduce their food intake and look for two and, in some cases, even three jobs.
In 2021, more than 2.4 million children were out of school, in many cases as a result of the destruction of schools in bombing. Even today, many minors are forced to work to help their families support themselves.
Limitations on financial transactions have also caused complex compliance procedures for banks dealing with Syria. From Syria, for example, it is not possible to connect to an external banking network (unless a VPN is used to circumvent geolocation), under penalty of permanent suspension of accounts.
The impossibility of investment has also reduced industrial production.
Put together, all these factors have so far prevented the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, reinforcing a vicious circle of low production, high prices and reduced exports, a trend that has in turn led to the devaluation of the local currency. If in 2015 it took 189 Syrian pounds to buy one US dollar, today 13,158 are needed (on the official market).
This ripple effect over time has also punched a hole in the state coffers, reducing services to the population, while the Assad family continued to support itself with a series of illegal trafficking, including Captagon, a drug similar to amphetamine, Syria's main export product during the years of civil war.
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04/09/2008
