Bangkok: Political crisis slows economy, in 2014 the GDP will fall below 3%
Bangkok (
AsiaNews / Agencies) - The anticipated growth of gross domestic product ( GDP)
in Thailand for 2014 will stay below the threshold of 3% , "if the
anti-government protests and the political stalemate in the country"
continue "in the second quarter "
of the year. The
alarm bell on development indicators for the Asian nation comes from the
authoritative University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, a private institution
specialized in higher education in economics and finance. Pisalvanich
Ath , director of the Centre for International Trade, confirms that the long
standing clash between the executive and the opposition - which has long since moved
from the halls of Parliament to the squares and the streets of Bangkok - has hit
the business sector, damaging small and medium-sized enterprises ( SMEs ) most
as they are unable to compete with other nations in the ASEAN bloc (
Association which brings together 10 countries of South- east Asia) .
From
the data obtained in the last quarter, orders for small and medium-sized
enterprises are in gradual decline , while customers are purchasing goods and
services from other countries. Because
of the political conflict and street protests, the manufacturing sector is not
able to meet the delivery times and to set certain deadlines . And
business is destined to get worse if the protests continue: trade partners will
also lose what little confidence remains in Thailand and the country's ability
to do business .
The
result is that Bangkok, within the ASEAN nations, is likely to slip from third
to fifth place among the bloc's strongest economies behind Singapore ,
Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. Only
in the case where the protests to stop in the short term ( and no later than
the first quarter of the year), Ath concludes in his analysis, GDP growth for
2014 will remain at 3% and there will be an increase of 3.8 % in the export sector .
However,
the signals from the executive and opposition do not lead to optimism for a
quick resolution. Yesterday
gunshots were heard in an army barracks, where Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra was meeting the leaders of the Election Commission to finalize the
procedures ahead of the vote on 2 February. Two
men, including the person who fired the shots, sustained injuries and were
hospitalized. Outside
the building, more than 500 people close to the opposition clamored for a
postponement of the vote.
In
spite of the protests and the recent ruling of the Constitutional Court which
declared that a postponement is admissible, the government seems intent on proceeding
to the polls, despite fears of violence. The
Commission is pushing for a referral to restore peace and tranquility to the
country: "Our indication - says Somchai Srisutthiyakorn - is to hold
elections in three or four months," because it is not currently possible
to ensure security at the polling stations. The
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaiku says that
"most people" are in favour of elections as soon as possible.
For
almost three months , diverse groups of protesters , led by the opposition, have
been calling on Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to resign. According
to the protesters, the Prime Minister's brother - Thaksin , the exiled Thai
leader - is " governing in absentia". However, Shinawatra has refused to resign and instead
has called for new elections early on February 2. So
far the protests - mainly concentrated in Bangkok home to the economic and
financial elite, close to the opposition - have been generally peaceful , but
there were moments of tension and riots , which caused the deaths of at least
10 people ,
including two police officers.
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