Iran war and its consequences in the Caucasus

Azerbaijan is on the front line of the conflict between Israel and Iran, with its ambivalent role as a strategic partner of Tel Aviv and complex and contradictory relations with Tehran. But neighbouring Armenia also openly expresses fears that the conflict could be protracted, involving other countries in the region.

Baku (AsiaNews) - The risks of conflict between Israel and Iran are very sensitive for Azerbaijan, a strategic partner of Tel Aviv with complex and contradictory relations with Tehran. With a 689 km border with Iran, provocations are possible, as are Iranian attacks against Israeli targets in Azerbaijan and an ‘ideological war’ for the deployment of Shiites against the current government of Ilham Aliev.

In Benjamin Netanyahu's view, this war is not a simple “special operation” in the Russian style, it is not an episode or an accident, but “a decisive and systematic response to an existential threat”, before the ayatollahs in Tehran have a chance to press the nuclear button.

The blows inflicted by Israel have already delayed Iran's nuclear programme by 6-7 years, but “this is not enough” for the Israelis. Comments from Azerbaijan report that “we are not fighting the Iranian people, but those who want to hold the entire Middle East captive from Tehran to Beirut and Damascus”.

The Israeli army and its intelligence services act in symbiosis between technological superiority and internal information, in a decidedly unconventional war. The end of the conflict is only conceivable if Tehran admits strategic and technological defeat and seeks an agreement that minimises losses and allows it to save face, which is particularly important in the Middle Eastern mindset: without openly admitting defeat, it can change its rhetoric and move on to economic negotiations, trying to mask the consequences of defeat.

In Washington and Brussels, they think that “all you need to do is sign a few papers”, commentators on Zerkalo.az observe, and the problem will be solved; in Tehran, on the other hand, they believe that pressure is humiliation that must be responded to in some way, preferably with force rather than negotiations.

But here the balance between the many players in the region comes into play, where Azerbaijan is considered a “true friend of Israel in its confrontation with the Arab world”, capable of convincing the Persian Gulf states to consider Israel as a neighbour rather than an enemy.

However, Azerbaijan is exposed to possible unrest, with refugee flows from Iran set to increase in the coming days, while the evacuation of populations in the border provinces is already beginning, requiring logistical, health and administrative organisation. Iran is beginning to accuse Baku of being an “ally of the Zionists”, hence the need for a pragmatic response without giving in to provocation.

Armenia is also closely monitoring developments between Israel and Iran, in this case with a more attentive orientation towards the Iranian position, with concerns expressed by the President of the National Assembly, Alen Simonyan.

For now, there have been no reports of refugees arriving in Armenia from Iran, but there is concern that “this war could last a long time and turn into something more global, involving the countries of the region, while we need peaceful neighbours”.

The balance in the region is very precarious due to many past tensions, which were thought to be overcoming, but now new clouds are gathering on the horizon of the South Caucasus.