Bangkok vs Phnom Penh and the 'Shinawatra case'

Political tensions between the two countries have not eased after a border skirmish on 25 May, while Thailand rejects external “interference” in the border issue. This crisis is intertwined with a court ruling expected on 13 June regarding former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was linked in the past by friendship and business to Cambodia’s ruling Hun clan. Meanwhile, Thailand remains caught in never-ending tensions between civilian and military leaders.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) – The ongoing crisis between Thailand and Cambodia is worsening, although fortunately only at a political and strategic level, after a Cambodian soldier was killed on 25 May following a skirmish near the town of Chong Bok that pitted Thais forces against Cambodian soldiers who were reinforcing their position on disputed land.

Bangkok has rejected what it deems external “interference” in the definition of its borders, starting with the International Criminal Court requested by Phnom Penh, and has strengthened its military presence in various disputed areas not yet officially delimited and recognised.

However, Thai authorities have refused to close the borders as requested by the country’s military, which is backed by a part of public opinion, and proposed instead a meeting of the Thai-Cambodian Joint Border Committee for mid-month.

The two countries are not new at border incidents or provocative actions, some even serious, which frequently reflect domestic politics. At the same time, the two have worked together over the years and achieved some positive results.

In the latest case, many take for granted a link between the tensions and the crucial decision expected on 13 June from Thailand’s Supreme Court on the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The latter is accused of using his prestige and wealth to avoid prison.

Upon his return to Thailand from exile in August 2023, he served his sentence in a luxurious hospital ward where he continued to build relationships useful to himself and the political party loyal to him until the post of prime minister went to his youngest daughter, Peantongtarn Shinawatra.

Relations between the Shinawatra family and the Hun family, which has controlled Cambodia for 38 years under Hun Sen and the last two years under his son, Hun Manet, have been one of friendship and business. This bond has been strengthened by the marriage between the daughter of Thaksin's older sister and the son of a member of Hun Sen’s close entourage.

There was a time when it seemed possible that the two countries might move closer under the two clans, but the constant changes in political fortunes in Thailand, Thaksin’s fall from grace and then of his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck, and above all the imposition of direct or indirect military power almost uninterruptedly since 2006 have prevented this from happening, even if it appeared possible in the past two years.

Some observers believe that border tensions could be the result of this blend of family and national interests. While Cambodia has everything to gain from an unstable Thailand helping Prime Minister Hun Manet and his government build support, Thailand is facing another political crisis as the opposition seems to be more willing to face down the Shinawatra clan over its control of the country.

Hovering in the background, Thailand’s Armed Forces remain an actor to reckon with, especially since they have a habit of carrying out coups, the last one in May 2014, and have not failed recently to remind Thais that they are the champions of the country’s  stability and defenders of its sovereignty.

• thailand
• cambodia
• border disputes
• tensions
• domestic crises