Elections and referendum: heated eve in Bangkok

At stake is not only who will lead the government, but also the possibility of rewriting the constitution imposed by the military in 2017. With the Shinawatra clan's Pheu Thai weakened, the battle appears to be between the reformists of the People's Party and the Bhumijaythai party led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin, who seeks to capitalise on the nationalist wave sparked by the conflict with Cambodia. But the real challenge is the faltering economy.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) – Thais go to the polls in a general election and referendum next Sunday (8 February), which is shaping up to be a decisive moment in their country’s history.

On that day, 53 million eligible voters will choose who will sit in the 550-member House of Representatives and decide whether the new legislature, in addition to picking the next prime minister, will also be tasked with rewriting the constitution drafted by the military in 2017 to consolidate their power after their May 2014 coup.

The election campaign, which began on 27 December, and the vote are inevitably affected by armed tensions with neighbouring Cambodia, with just below, the country’s growing economic difficulties and geopolitical uncertainty.

On the first point, undoubtedly the situation – with open conflict since last spring over disputed border areas between the two countries – could have strong political repercussions, boosting not only pro-military and pro-monarchist parties, but also those that play the nationalist card and show decisiveness in managing the crisis.

On the other hand, for the more progressive movements, whose electorate is younger and middle class, increasingly pressing economic issues – amid a contraction in industrial production and tourism revenues, and the growing difficulties in ensuring adequate employment and income levels – cannot be separated from seeking social and cultural renewal designed to reduce the power of aristocratic elites, oligarchs, and the armed forces.

Other political groups are focusing on encouraging support for populist policies, building on consolidated relationships in the region, and listening to local needs and aspirations, with a more nuanced ideological commitment and broad but less clearly defined programmes.

Three political forces (Bhumijaythai, People's Party, and Pheu Thai) can aspire to nationwide success, while a fourth, the Palang Pracharath, is significantly declining in the polls, despite being a direct emanation of the military.

Still the role of the latter’s uniformed sponsors remains crucial and could emerge even after the results are announced, as has often happened in the past, citing the "need" for order, the preservation of national identity, or protection from external aggression.

Stability, security, and growth are everyone's mantras, but the methods to achieve them differ.

The Pheu Thai party, overwhelmingly favoured by voters in its various “reincarnations” in the past, now appears to be struggling to secure a leading role again.

For many years under the tutelage of its founder, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, from inside the country or from exile, the party chose its leaders from the former’s close associates and blood relatives, including his sister Yingluck Shinawatra and his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has led the party since 2023.

With roots in the densely populated but low-income Northeast, Pheu Thai's history has been marked by ongoing conflict with the monarchy and the generals, as well as questionable choices and programmes. Today, it can only marginally count on the prestige of the Shinawatra clan.

So far, the People's Party, whose roots are mostly urban and among students, is ahead in the polls. It is led by 38-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

It too rebranded itself and chose new leaders after the courts forced it out of politics in previous elections, and now has focused on modernisation, an end to corruption and privileges, and a revision of the relationship between country and Crown.

As Move Forward, it won the May 2023 elections by a wide margin, only to find itself ousted from power by the unprecedented and opportunistic alliance between the Pheu Thai and the Bhumijaythai Party, once archrivals.

The latter – which has only been in government in recent months with its leader Anutin Charnvirakul serving as caretaker prime minister – could be the real outsider, but will likely face a hard opponent in the People's Party.

Of all the major parties, it stands to benefit the most from the charisma of its leader, who enjoys a broad network of connections and interests, and from the promotion of nationalism, as well as support from the top military brass. However, it can rely much less on its electoral platform.

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