Energy demand expected to grow 50 per cent by 2035 in Mideast
A study by the IEA study highlights this projection. Titled "The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa,” the document notes that electricity output has tripled since 2000 to meet demand for water desalination and home cooling. The use of renewable energies is increasing. Experts believe it is necessary to upgrade existing systems to optimise costs and reduce consumption.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – In a recently published study, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has tripled since 2000 and is expected to grow by another 50 per cent by 2035 in the energy-hungry region.
According to the in-depth research by the intergovernmental organisation set up by 29 countries in 1974 within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OSCE), growing demand should be met through a progressive shift toward natural gas, renewable sources, and nuclear energy, while the share of oil in the regional energy mix is expected to drastically decline.
Titled "The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa," the 132-page document highlights how growing populations, incomes, urbanisation, and industrialisation are fuelling energy demand across the region.
At the same time, extreme heat and water shortages are set to impact future growth and energy needs, with desalination and home cooling alone accounting for approximately 40 per cent of the growth in consumer demand over the next decade.
Overall, this figure is estimated to be the equivalent to the current combined electricity demand of Germany and Spain.
Currently, natural gas and oil dominate electricity generation in the region, accounting for over 90 per cent of electricity supply. However, this mix is rapidly changing.
Many countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are trying to reduce their use of oil-fired power to focus on oil exports.
The IEA study shows that natural gas will end up covering about half of the increase in demand by 2035, with oil’s share dropping from the current 20 per cent to just 5 per cent.
The use of renewables should continue to grow. Solar capacity is expected to rise tenfold by 2035, by 200 gigawatts (GW), which would bring the share of green energy in the total mix to approximately 25 per cent, up from 6 per cent in 2024. Nuclear power is also expected to triple over the same period.
“Electricity demand is surging across the Middle East and North Africa, driven by the rapidly rising need for air conditioning and water desalination in a heat- and water-stressed region with growing populations and economies,” says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“To meet this demand, power capacity over the next 10 years is set to expand by over 300 gigawatts, the equivalent of three times Saudi Arabia’s current total generation capacity,” he added.
Meeting this need, the report points out, will not be cheap or untroubled. Investment in the energy sector hit US$ 44 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow by another 50 per cent by 2035.
It is estimated that nearly 40 per cent of this spending will be allocated to upgrading grids, which currently suffer losses twice as high as the global average.
The IEA adds that grid enhancement and strengthening regional interconnections will be critical for the security of electricity supply, while balancing renewable energy will require increased energy storage capacity, demand-side flexibility, and a sufficient number of gas-fired power plants to cover periods when solar and wind power are unavailable.
Improving energy efficiency could alleviate part of the problem; for example, air conditioners in the region are less than half as efficient as those in Japan.
Upgrading plants alone could reduce demand growth at peak summer demand by an amount equivalent to Iraq's entire current power capacity.
Finally, the study warns that the stakes will be high and the problems huge if countries proceed more slowly in diversifying their energy mix.
Carbon dioxide emissions can be expected to continue to rise, while demand for oil and gas for electricity generation could jump by more than a quarter by 2035, thus cutting into export revenues by as much as US$ 80 billion. This would also boost import spending by US$ 20 billion.
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26/08/2021 11:58
