The split between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, allies in the coalition that has governed Japan almost continuously since 1999, ushers in a new phase of political instability in Japan. The recently elected LDP leader, conservative Sanae Takaichi, now risks failing to secure the majority needed to become the country's first female prime minister. The opposition, led by the Constitutional Democratic Party, is trying to join forces to block her election.

Tokyo (AsiaNews) – Less than a week after her election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi’s prospects of becoming Japan's first female prime minister are faltering.

Yesterday, Komeito pulled out of the ruling coalition, which has led Japan almost uninterruptedly since 1999, ushering in a phase of political uncertainty and instability. At the same time, this gives opposition parties an opportunity to capitalise on the situation.

Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito justified the decision with the need to “to bring an end to the issue of politics and money”, a reference to a funding scandal that engulfed the LDP last year, exposing a series of illicit payments disguised as fundraisers.

The scandal had already forced the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and led to a collapse of confidence in the LDP.

The election of Takaichi, known for her ultraconservative views, as party leader was supposed to revive the party’s fortunes, but her decision to appoint Koichi Hagiuda, implicated in the scandal, to a top party post sparked outrage among allies.

Founded in the 1950s as the political arm of Soka Gakkai, a Buddhist organisation, Komeito is founded on principles of moderation and transparency.

Many of its members have expressed concern about Takaichi's ties to right-wing nationalism and her repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead, including war criminals.

The last visit by a sitting prime minister dates back to 2013, when then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi's mentor, sparked protests in China and South Korea.

As a result of Takaichi’s ill-fated choice, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) led by Yoshihiko Noda, seized the opportunity to propose a candidate for the post of prime minister.

“This is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for a change of government," said Noda, who called for an alliance with Yuichiro Tamaki's centre-right Democratic Party for the People (DPP).

While the CDP holds 148 seats in the Lower House, the LDP has 196, and Komeito, 24. Even a potential agreement between the LDP and the DPP (27 seats) would not be enough to reach the 233-seat majority needed to pick a new prime minister.

If the three main opposition parties – CDP, DPP, and the Innovation Party – united behind a single candidate, they would have 210 votes, enough to prevent Takaichi from being elected.

However, deep differences remain on issues such as security, nuclear energy, and possible constitutional revisions sought by the far right.

On the economic front, Takaichi's election as leader of the LDP had immediate effects on financial markets.

Yields on ultra-long-term Japan Government Bonds (JGBs) rose to their highest level since 2008, exceeding 3.3 per cent on 30-year bonds, a sign that investors expect expansionary fiscal policy under her leadership.

With the Bank of Japan scaling back its bond purchases and domestic banks constrained by stricter risk rules, the government is now having to seek new buyers for its debt.

Foreign investors bought over 9.4 trillion yen in long-term bonds in the first eight months of the year, nearly three times the previous record.

But this reliance on foreign capital makes political stability even more important for Japan. Takaichi currently remains the favourite in the first parliamentary vote.

Komeito, which intends to vote for its leader in the first round, has not yet clarified its position in a potential runoff. However, if the opposition manages to unite around a single name, the country could witness a major change in government.

• japan
• liberal democratic party
• ldp
• sanae takaichi
• komeito
• tetsuo saito
• constitutional democratic party of japan
• cdp
• yoshihiko noda