Kabul flees Islamabad and seeks alternatives in Central Asia

The country wants to diversify its trade routes with the region, reducing its dependence on Pakistan. This trend has strengthened after recent hostilities with its neighbour. In the last month, Afghan traders have lost 200 million dollars. The trade balance with the five Central Asian countries has reached 1.7 billion.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - Afghanistan is increasingly seeking to diversify its trade routes with Central Asia, reducing its economic dependence on neighbouring Pakistan, its historic main partner, by taking advantage of the oil wealth of the Central Asians.

Industry experts warn that this new balance will not be easy to achieve, considering the geographical position, the great social and industrial delays and the limitations of the Taliban political system in Kabul.

The search for new trading partners has intensified following the outbreak of armed hostilities with Islamabad, the most acute in several years, with mutual attacks that have killed dozens of people and the closure of borders by Pakistan.

Over the last month, this closure has resulted in losses of over 0 million for Afghan traders, who traditionally rely on Pakistani seaports to reach international markets.

Now the Taliban leaders themselves are pushing traders and investors to break off relations with Pakistan and turn to Central Asian countries, as Kabul's trade minister, Nuruddin Azizi, said: ‘We are actively working with our northern neighbours to find effective alternatives in the field of trade.’

Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Gani Baradar has accused Pakistan of using trade as a ‘tool of political pressure,’ as evidenced by the closure of its borders, and the former spokesman for the previous Kabul government, Torek Farhadi, currently in Switzerland, believes that the Taliban's orientation towards Central Asia is in turn ‘a political response’ to tensions with Islamabad.

The difficulties of the shift are considerable, considering that the whole of Central Asia has no access to the sea, and long land corridors are needed to allow Afghans to access large markets, not to mention the tariffs imposed on exports, especially of agricultural products such as fruit, vegetables and other products with a limited shelf life, which require fast transport.

As Farhadi notes, to make the northern route profitable, Afghanistan would have to waive tariffs, offering advantages and privileges to its Central Asian partners, but customs revenues “are one of the main sources of income for the Kabul government”.

Many railway development projects remain unfinished due to insufficient funding. The lack of international recognition of the Taliban government, which has so far only been granted by Russia, means that it is unable to obtain significant funding from sources such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and trade with Central Asia remains rather limited.

According to official Afghan data, the trade balance with the five Central Asian countries has reached .7 billion, largely due to imports of flour, fuel, vegetable oil and building materials into Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is the main partner, with a memorandum of mutual commitments signed in 2024 that aims to reach billion in the coming years.

Uzbekistan has also been very active in its relations with Afghanistan, exceeding billion in 2024, with the intention of reaching billion by the end of this year. Afghan exports through the Torgundi border crossing with Turkmenistan have also doubled, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have activated the most important components of the Casa-1000 project on electricity exports to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

As Azarahsh Hafizi, former head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce, comments, “the reality remains linked to the shortest corridor through Pakistan to reach seaports, India and other South Asian markets”, and the main objective must remain the reopening and transit in this direction. Afghanistan remains oriented towards the south, despite all the ethnic and cultural ties that can still grow with Central Asia.

• Taleban