Lebanon, caught “at a crossroads” between Israel and Hezbollah, awaits Pope Leo
The population is “honoured” to have been chosen as the first destination of the pontiff's apostolic journey abroad, but it is also “exhausted”. From two years of war to attacks in southern Israel, many issues remain unresolved. Ortagus' mission for direct negotiations between the Jewish state and the Land of Cedars. The rift widens between Christians, Druze and Sunnis and the Shiite Hezbollah-Amal tandem.
Beirut (AsiaNews) - Honoured to have been chosen by the pontiff as the first destination for his apostolic journeys, yesterday the Lebanese finally learned of the programme for Pope Leo XIV's visit to Lebanon (and Turkey) from 30 November to 2 December. In Christian families in the Land of Cedars, the hope for a miracle remains faint but real, and the memory of the two previous visits to Lebanon by John Paul II and Benedict XVI is still alive. Exhausted by two years of open war, now latent, the Lebanese “hope against hope” that the visit will tip the balance towards peace in a country ravaged by political, economic and security crises, caught in the grip of the Israeli occupier and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. “In southern Lebanon, there are victims every day. The situation cannot go on,” is the murmur in every living room in Lebanon.
Diversified attacks
In fact, despite the cessation of hostilities agreement concluded at the end of November 2023, Israeli attacks are expanding geographically and diversifying. In this context, two major construction vehicle fleets and a tar and asphalt production plant in southern Lebanon have been destroyed, one of which was located north of the Litani River, near the southern residence of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry. This is a brutal way of saying that the Lebanese are forbidden from rebuilding their villages until a security agreement with the Jewish state has been signed.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue their relentless hunt for militiamen and alleged Hezbollah members, with a death toll of nine in the last week alone in shootings at moving cars in Bint Jbeil, Naqoura and Khiam. These attacks continue while Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has just stated that the army will continue to occupy the “five points” in southern Lebanon “indefinitely”, regardless of the outcome of the border talks. This statement deprives the government leadership in Beirut of a strong argument against Hezbollah, which continues to be armed.
The intensification of Israeli bombing means, in the eyes of many, that Israel is preparing to take matters into its own hands by force, having realised that Lebanon is reluctant to disarm the pro-Iranian movement on its own, even in this case resorting to the use of force. All this is happening just as the UN mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is preparing its final withdrawal from the country, which should be completed in January 2027. This progressive security vacuum raises fears of a collapse of the fragile balance in the southern towns under UNIFIL surveillance. ‘Its departure,’ warns an anonymous Lebanese diplomat, ‘would mean the end of international deterrence in the south.’ Without it, he warns with concern, ‘the front lines will once again become grey areas.’
Ortagus on mission in Beirut
In this explosive context, US Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus arrived in Beirut yesterday after visiting the Israeli-Lebanese border with Defence Minister Katz, who, in her presence, gave the order to shoot down a suspected Hezbollah member. Through the messages it will convey to Lebanese leaders, Washington is pushing for a bilateral surveillance mechanism involving Israel and Lebanon under American supervision, an idea that fuels Hezbollah's mistrust, although many leaders in the “Party of God” recognise its validity.
‘You don't negotiate with a friend,’ said Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar, who is close to the Kataëb, ‘and there is a long way to go from negotiations to peace or normalisation.’ Moreover, like many Lebanese, the minister defends the idea of a return to the 1949 Israeli-Lebanese armistice agreement. When asked by AsiaNews, analyst Scarlett Haddad pointed out that ‘the intensification of Israeli attacks, together with the Ortagus mission, are intended to push Lebanon to start direct negotiations with Israel. How will Lebanon react? Will this pressure escalate and turn into war? All these questions are legitimate and all scenarios are possible.’
The role of Egypt
Tomorrow, the head of the Egyptian secret services, General Hassan Mahmoud Rachad, envoy of President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, is also expected to arrive in Lebanon. His mission: to attempt to mediate a peace agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The Egyptian embassy in Lebanon has stated that the purpose of the visit is to ‘strengthen political and security coordination’ between Cairo and Beirut. The country of the pharaohs, already a key player in the truces between Israel and Hamas, hopes in this sense to prevent the conflict from spreading to Lebanon and to curb the current escalation. “Egypt is one of the few states capable of engaging in dialogue with Tel Aviv, Washington and Beirut simultaneously,” confides a European diplomat. “Its role,” he continues, “could be decisive in the coming days.” In addition, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is expected in Egypt in the coming days to discuss the many issues on the agenda.
The domestic front
On the domestic front, the visit comes at a time when the political rift between the Lebanese Christian, Druze and Sunni communities on the one hand and the Shiite Hezbollah-Amal tandem on the other is deepening. On the security front, the Shiite movement linked to Tehran has backtracked and declared that it will not hand over its weapons, despite Resolution 1701 obliging it to do so, as long as Israel continues to occupy Lebanon.
This arrogance is also evident at the parliamentary level, ahead of the parliamentary elections in May 2026. That is why, thanks to an amendment to the electoral law requested by 67 MPs authorising Lebanese abroad to vote in their countries of residence, the forces hostile to Hezbollah hope to break the hegemony exercised by this party, with its satellite Amal, over Shiite parliamentary representation. At the same time, they hope to liberate the voice and free will of a community suffocated by the ideological yoke of the Islamic Republic. However, in contravention of all constitutional norms, Berry refuses to include this item on the agenda of any parliamentary session, undermining the normal functioning of the institutions.
Country at a crossroads
Prior to these regional negotiations, it should be noted that on 25 October, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam travelled to the Vatican, where he was received by the Pope. According to a joint statement, the meeting concerned “the spiritual and logistical preparation of the Holy Father's visit”. It appears that, in order to keep to his busy schedule, some of the Pope's movements will be by helicopter. In addition, special security measures may be taken for the interfaith session to be held in Martyrs' Square in central Beirut. To strengthen confidence in this regard, yesterday the Apostolic Nuncio, Monsignor Paolo Borgia, visited the president of the Shiite Islamic Higher Council, Sheikh Ali el-Khabtib.
‘I come to Lebanon as a brother among brothers,’ the pontiff said during the Angelus on 19 October. ‘I pray,’ he continued, ‘that this country will rediscover its role as a message of coexistence and peace.’ Between the withdrawal of UNIFIL forces, the intensification of Israeli attacks, parallel mediations by Washington and Cairo, the diplomatic efforts of the Vatican and internal divisions within the country, these factors have brought Lebanon, now more than ever, to a crossroads in its recent history.
In this perspective, Leo XIV has placed his journey under the sign of the verse: ‘Blessed are the peacemakers.’ ‘He is absolutely right,’ emphasises a Maronite bishop who requested anonymity. ‘Peace,’ he warns, ‘is a work of craftsmanship. It is handmade and requires a great deal of diplomatic skill, personal ties, gestures of trust and prayer.’ The Pope's moment of reflection in front of the port of Beirut [the scene of the devastating explosion in August 2020]; the open-air Mass; the visit to the monastery of Annaya; the visit to the Convent of the Cross; the ‘House of Suffering’ in Lebanon, which is in serious financial deficit. These will all be precious moments of reflection for many Lebanese. Because ‘nothing is impossible for God,’ they say.
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07/05/2024 11:37
