Modi announces caste census with an eye to Bihar elections

After years of disregarding opposition demands, the Indian government has changed course and decided to include caste classification in the next national census. Behind the political move lie electoral pressures and the growing influence of disadvantaged castes. No official date has been set, but according to local media, the census is expected to take place in 2026.

On Wednesday, 30 April, the Indian government announced that a caste census would be carried out alongside the upcoming national population census. The decision has taken the opposition by surprise, as it had long been calling for such a measure.

Caste enumeration has for years been a key issue for opposition parties and social justice movements. Rahul Gandhi, leader of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, repeatedly emphasised the importance of a caste census—both during the Bharat Jodo Yatra and more recently in the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra of 2024—presenting it as part of a broader vision of social and economic justice aimed at transforming the country.

Until now, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had consistently opposed such a measure, labelling the caste census as “divisive,” “anti-national,” and even “Naxalite,” referencing the separatist movements of the 1960s. When the state government of Bihar, led by Nitish Kumar, conducted its own caste census in 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused him of trying to “divide the country” and create rifts in society. As recently as 2021, the BJP had described the decision not to proceed with the caste census as a “conscious political choice.”

It is worth noting that a caste survey was previously conducted in 2011, separate from that year’s national census, but the results were never made public as they were considered unreliable and imprecise. The publication of those findings could have had significant repercussions on the political and social balance of the country, particularly concerning the allocation of state subsidies to disadvantaged groups.

Now, with public attention focused on the recent terrorist attack in Kashmir and the latest missile exchanges with Pakistan—and just months ahead of the state elections in Bihar—the government appears to have shifted its stance. According to many analysts, the decision is a direct response to growing political pressure on the BJP. Modi’s announcement that caste data will be included in the next national census marks a significant departure from the previous position held by the BJP-RSS axis (the RSS, or Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, is a far-right paramilitary organisation that also shaped the ideological foundations of the BJP).

Although the RSS has long argued that a caste census would undermine Hindu unity—a position once shared by India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru—this latest political move underscores the central role of caste in the country’s governance and electoral mobilisation.

Unlike the 2014 and 2019 elections, the most recent 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw the vote of marginalised social groups—Scheduled Castes (SC), Other Backward Castes (OBC), and Scheduled Tribes (ST)—play a decisive role, contributing to the BJP's failure to secure a majority in several states. Some observers believe that embracing the caste census could help the party strengthen support among backward castes ahead of the Bihar state elections scheduled for October–November 2025.

However, the data collected could also prompt a re-evaluation of the reservation (quota) system, which has historically favoured upper castes. This poses the risk of resistance from dominant castes and from some major OBC groups, both of which are key pillars of the BJP’s current social coalition.

India’s census is held every ten years, with the last one completed in 2011. The 2022 census was cancelled due to the pandemic and has yet to be rescheduled. While no official date has been announced, local media suggest the next census will take place in 2026.

Conducting the census will be a colossal task for the government, requiring the collection of data from 1.4 billion people, with enormous logistical, economic, and political implications.

Several legislative measures are awaiting updated census data before they can be implemented—among them, the Women’s Reservation Bill (2023), which proposes reserving 33% of seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament) and in state legislative assemblies for women. While it remains unclear how the government will handle the political and social consequences of this decision, there is growing hope that the census could help democratise power and ensure more accurate representation of the country’s demographic realities.

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