Moscow’s New Weapons for Tehran

While the outcome of the negotiations between Iran and the United States appears uncertain, analysts are questioning the impact of the new Russian military supplies to Tehran. These systems are unlikely to shift the balance of power in play, and Moscow would have preferred not to divert them from the Ukrainian front. However, they serve to ease Iranian irritation over the limited support provided, despite the “strategic partnership.”

Moscow (AsiaNews) – The Financial Times reports that Russia and Iran have concluded a secret €500 million deal under which Moscow would commit to delivering to Tehran 500 Manpads (man-portable air-defense systems), short-range shoulder-fired Verba anti-aircraft missile systems, and 1,500 missiles equipped with Mowgli-2 targeting devices to detect aircraft during the darkest hours of the day. The military equipment will be delivered in three stages between 2027 and 2029 in order to restore Iran’s air defense system, which was partially destroyed during last year’s war with Israel. Information about the agreement was made public during another period of rising tensions in the region. Yesterday, the anticipated talks between U.S. and Iranian officials took place in Geneva: Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, who acted as mediator, said there had been “significant progress” in the sensitive nuclear negotiations, but the chances of an agreement that could avert a war remain uncertain.

Just over a year ago, Russia and Iran had signed a “strategic partnership” agreement aimed at “deepening relations between the two countries,” also through economic and military cooperation. In February of this year, the naval forces of Russia and Iran conducted joint exercises in the Gulf of Oman, coming close to the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been stationed off Iran’s coast since January. Journalist and political analyst Nikita Smagin observed on Radio Svoboda that the new supplies “could at most be useful if, during a prolonged military campaign, helicopters or other forces operating directly on Iranian territory were to be deployed.”

In the 12-day war, Israel did not launch rockets from its own territory, and Manpads countermeasure systems would have been useless. Only drones targeting specific objectives reached Iran, but “Tehran is trying to gather any type of weaponry that might sooner or later prove useful,” the expert says. Russia, moreover, fully understands that direct assistance—by sending its own soldiers to Iran—would trigger a conflict with the United States and Israel; it is only known that Moscow has organized many flights since the beginning of the year, although the contents of the cargo remain unknown. Russia must somehow resolve its own war in Ukraine, and its resources would not be sufficient to sustain another front of such magnitude.

The shipment of weapons from Russia to Iran appears largely illogical, such as helicopters, which are badly needed by the Russians themselves. Even if Russian supplies to Iran increase—after Iran in turn assisted Russia in the war in Ukraine—this “is unlikely to shift the balance of power in play,” Smagin comments. Another expert, oil industry analyst Mikhail Krutikhin, believes that “Iran’s leadership is rather irritated with the Russians, who are not honoring agreed commitments,” and that the secret deal of recent days would be an attempt to at least partially satisfy Iranian allies, even at Moscow’s own expense. In his view, the naval exercises are “a ridiculous display of nonexistent strength,” and in any case, during the war with Israel the Russians did not lift a finger.

The spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that “despite Western slander, we are supporting our friendly countries and allies, including Cuba and Iran, with assistance without which they would not be able to preserve their independence.” Provided, experts comment, that Russia itself manages to preserve its own independence and does not disintegrate under the economic and social strain of the war.

• Iran
• Russia
• Moskow
• Tehran
• Usa