by Stefano Caprio

Leo XIV, the first American pope, has somewhat overshadowed the popularity of the American emperor in Russia, acting in some ways as an alternative in the image of the "Anglo-Saxon" West so reviled by the Kremlin. After all, today the Russian Church has split from almost all the other Orthodox Churches, starting with the Patriarchate of Constantinople, while dialogue with Rome has never been interrupted.

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine failed miserably in Istanbul, the Second Rome where the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople is based, who was obviously not called to pronounce words of mercy since the Russians view him as the greatest traitor to the true Orthodox faith, now the prerogative of Moscow, the Third Rome.

The circumstances of the last few days, after many world leaders attended the funeral of Pope Francis and the inauguration of Pope Leo XIV, seem to refocus the world’s attention on the First Rome, the seat of ancient emperors and universal peace.

The latest emperors do not seem very inclined to grant a real peace to oppressed peoples, as did Julius Caesar and Octavian Augustus, who sought eternal glory, unlike Trump and Putin, who rather seek profit and revenge, to satisfy the instincts and grudges of an increasingly disintegrating modern world.

The Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, described as “tragic” the farcical meeting in Istanbul; Pope Leo has proposed making another attempt in the shadow of the Holy See, taking the place of his irascible compatriot.

Pope Leo XIV will not likely repeat the feats of his predecessor John XXIII, who managed to inspire the reconciliation between John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev, forming a "Trinity of Peace" in a world dominated by the Cold War.

Pope Francis tried various times to intervene since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, connecting online with the Patriarch of Moscow Kirill, stating that he was ready to go to Kyiv and Moscow, and sending Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi on a humanitarian mission, to save children, help refugees, and free prisoners, but with few results.

Today, the conflict and relations seem to suggest different factors, which could lead to some progress in the quest for greater mutual understanding.

First, the war has been dragging on for more than three years now, consuming the forces and resources not only of the Ukrainian victims, but also of the Russian aggressors and the international community, amid rearmament and appeals for surrender and acceptance of reality, however humiliating it may be, especially for Kyiv, or unsatisfactory for Moscow.

Russia is clearly taking advantage of the lengthy negotiations to readjust and prepare for a possible new offensive, calling for the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands more men and filling the arsenals with weapons and missiles to hurl at the enemy and its defenceless population.

Yet, all economic indicators show that a new escalation of the war could be disastrous for the Russian economy, which can no longer find loopholes from the pressure of international sanctions or solutions to runaway inflation that is increasingly affecting the population, so much so that the president of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that "we are trying to reprocess the data with artificial intelligence, hoping that they will offer us new perspectives".

Another obvious factor, which makes a rebalancing of all geopolitical relations even more urgent, is the failure of the promises of US President Donald Trump, who said that he would get peace "within 24 hours". Four months after his return to the White House, he is still empty-handed, at the mercy of Vladimir Putin's delaying and mocking tactics.

Now the United States threatens to stop mediating between Russia and Ukraine, reducing itself to a marginal factor in international politics, a consequence also of the contradictions of the "tariff war" which seem to be a total failure, as a result of market reactions and China’s opposition.

Trump's policies are paradoxically awakening Europe, which despite its many contradictions to manage could become the true centre of international relations between East and West, and the heart of Europe is historically right in Rome, even with all the political priorities in Brussels, Paris, Berlin and London.

The 267th successor of Peter has many cards in his hands, making his figure particularly incisive precisely at this crucial moment in history. He is the successor of Pope Francis, who sought and urged peace for many years. In his first speeches, Leo has forcefully followed Francis, who in his final months had lost his voice due to illness and the inevitable fragility of the passing of time. This now plays in Leo’s favour.

The new pope “reject[s] the Manichean notions so typical of that mindset of violence that divides the world into those who are good and those who are evil,” saying instead: “Let us meet, let us talk, let us negotiate!” The new pontiff has reiterated this appeal in all the first solemn occasions of the proclamation of his magisterium.

These occasions were extremely important, with huge crowds and legions of heads of state, all in Rome for Francis’s funeral and Leo’s installation, with negotiations conducted directly inside St Peter's Basilica and its surroundings, talks with the new head of the Church and reassurances of support for the victims, as in the meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

No place in the world can show itself more authoritative than the Holy See, even if Russia was largely absent, represented by junior officials (Minister Olga Lyubimova did not make it for the Mass for the beginning of the pontificate due to “fight schedule problems”). Obviously noticeable for their absence were the Chinese who have very delicate agreements with the Vatican that are in need of confirmation.

The very personality of Pope Leo XIV also plays a special role. As the first American pope who overshadows the popularity of the American emperor, he can stand in some way as an alternative in the image of the “Anglo-Saxon” West so reviled by the Kremlin, which today arouses much more varied reactions in Russian public opinion.

Even the revival of symbolic elements of traditional Catholicism, in liturgical vestments and procedures, in speeches and in the confirmation of traditional family values and principles of faith, with respect to the "anxieties" of Pope Francis, are all elements that make a positive impression on Russians.

The Argentine pope was viewed favourably in Moscow above all because of his Latin American origins, from one of the regions where Russia feels ahead of the "hegemonic North," whereas the Chicago-born pope has managed to present himself instead as a Peruvian missionary from Chiclayo, close to the world’s poor and to the regions that are far from the centres of economic and political power in today’s globalised world.

Leo XIV appears to be a combination of Benedict XVI and Francis, guarantor of tradition and attentive to the world’s marginalised and its peripheries, clearly attractive not only for the opposing groups in the Catholic world, but also for Orthodox and Protestant Churches.

Today’s Russian Church has split from almost all the other Orthodox Churches, starting with the Patriarchate of Constantinople, with lukewarm support only from the patriarchates of Antioch and Serbia, while the dialogue with Rome has never been interrupted, as evidenced by the presence at Vatican ceremonies of Metropolitan Anthony (Sevryk), the "foreign minister" and right-hand man of the Patriarch of Moscow Kirill, who has already reiterated that he wants to continue the dialogue with the new pope.

Holding negotiations at the Vatican would take on a "sacred" aura much appreciated by the Russians, allowing Putin to present himself alongside the blessing pontiff as the true defender of "traditional moral and spiritual values", the great motivation for the war against Ukraine and the whole world.

It is no accident that some Russian ideologues are already trying to push for the meeting between Putin and Leo XIV, like Roman Lunkin, director of the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, according to whom Putin is uniquely placed in the world. As head of state, he has met the popes of Rome more than anyone else, “twice with John Paul II,  once with Benedict XVI, and three times with Pope Francis. The premises are there for a meeting with the new Pope Leo XIV.”

Lunkin notes that Russia has tried to maintain good relations with the papacy "from the time of the Baptism of Kievan Rus' to the present day”. Even in Soviet times, when there were no official diplomatic relations, "the Vatican played an important role in the context of Soviet diplomacy", he said in an address cited by Russia Today.

Often cited by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the late Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, dubbed Mr Niet (Mr No), met with Pope Paul VI in the Vatican and convinced him to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons in 1968.

Now, as a new threat of atomic apocalypse looms, it is truly to be hoped that the pope of Rome can inspire feelings of peace in the tsar of Moscow.

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• leo xiv
• russia
• ukraine
• peace
• war
• putin
• kirill