Four-way power play to decide Middle East future
Beirut (AsiaNews) - The chemical weapons agreement between the United States and Russia, followed by the rapprochement between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme have reshuffled the cards in the Middle East power play. To better understand the latter, a specialist of the region describes the four-way power play as follows.
At the regional level, four opposing groups are at work:
1) France/Israel/Jordan/Davutoglu (Turkish foreign minister)/Bandar bin Sultan (Saudi Arabia and its neighbours, like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates)/al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant/Lebanese Wahhabis and the leaders of Lebanon's 14 March movement;
2) Erdogan (Turkish prime minister)/Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt/Syria (SNC-SLA)/Hamas Palestinians in Lebanon;
3) United States;
4) Russian/Assad/Iraq/Iran/Hezbollah/Islamic Jihad in Palestine.
The source has also included some clarifications:
- The same actor can belong to several groups or switch from one to another, depending on the circumstances;
- The British play a subtle game. Basically, they work for Group 1 (Israel), but prefer to stay behind the scene, appear to be in retreat, and are ready to leave the scene if Washington (theoretically Group 3) wants them.
- King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia relies on Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi intelligence chief (Group 1), but if Obama (Group 3) asks the king, he will dismiss Bandar.
- General Sissi has one foot in Saudi Arabia (Group 1), one in Washington (Group 3) and a third in Damascus (Group 4).
- Erdogan, through his Justice and Development (AKP) Party, is closely aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood across the Arab world. But he has given his foreign minister, Davutoglu a broad leeway. The latter for example allowed into Syria operatives from al Qaeda in Iraq (and even al Qaeda fighters from Pakistan) to fight the Syrian army and Kurdish militias. Still, the Americans (Group 3) have the means to bring around Davutoglu and Erdogan, since the Turkish police, secret services and even the AKP are infiltrated by pro-American political and religious elements.
- Qatar has close ties, for tactical reasons, with the Muslim Brotherhood (Group 2), whilst retaining significant relations with Israel (Group 1). Ultimately Doha relies on the United States (Group 3), which may at any time stop recess time.
The power play of alliances and oppositions will certainly change after the agreement on chemical weapons in Syria, and the overtures between US and Iranian presidents.
The phone call that changed
everything
Diplomatic sources in Beirut, quoted by Scarlett Haddad in the French-language daily L'Orient- Le Jour, yesterday reported details about the "phone call that changed everything" between President Obama and Iranian President Rouhani, on the side-lines of the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York.
According to the source, the conversation between the two men took place in English, except for a few polite phrases spoken in Persian by the US president.
The exchange focused on the Iranian nuclear issue, and Obama recognised Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Rouhani said that "We have been saying the same thing for years, but you would not believe us." Obama replied that this time, "I heard the fatwa (religious decree) by the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, banning nuclear weapons." And Rouhani replied, "If you can keep your word, choose someone you trust who can talk to us about this issue."
As everyone knows, the case is now in the hands of Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Jawad Zarif and US Secretary of State John Kerry, who warmly shook hands in New York. If things go as desired, negotiations between the two countries should not take more than a year.
However, the US-Iranian rapprochement does not please everyone. In Iran, it has sparked the (apparent) hostility of the Revolutionary Guards. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu believes the Iranians are engaged in taquiyya (religious dissimulation), and continues to emphasise the dangers of a nuclear Iran and war.
For now though, this rapprochement has led to a significant drop in regional tensions, including in Syria, although it has not ended that country's war.
For their part, Syrian rebels (Group 2) have not concealed their disappointment over what they view as a "let down" and have not missed a single opportunity to say that the Syrian regime has profited from it.
In Lebanon, Christian groups have welcomed this rapid shift in the regional crisis, despite all its ambiguities and uncertainties. Some religious leaders openly acknowledge that it is related to Pope Francis' call on 7 September for a day of fasting and prayer for peace in Syria, the Middle East and around the world.
Millions of Christians around the world observed that day with respect and devotion, joined by believers of other religions, such as Muslims, as well as atheists.
Providence often borrows "the voice of men," people who cite John Paul II when he called on people to see "God's action in human history".
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08/04/2010
17/07/2007
