Lebanon is going through a critical period caught in the crossfire of the US-Iranian conflict
Regional tensions are being followed with close attention and concern in Lebanon. As diplomatic manoeuvring between Washington and Tehran intensifies, rumours of war are multiplying. Lebanese sources warn that the parties “are playing with fire”. For Iran, the very survival of the regime depends on it. The risk of Hezbollah's involvement is very real.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – Lebanon is living through crucial hours, holding its breath waiting for developments in the conflict opposing the United States and Iran. To avoid devastating repercussions of a potential war on the country, it is increasing its diplomatic activity.
"Both Washington and Tehran are playing with fire," high-ranking local sources told AsiaNews. "The decision to carry out a U.S. strike against Iran has already been made. However, neither the date nor the scale of the strike is yet known," a Western diplomatic source told the French-language Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour.
More information will be available when US President Trump delivers his State of the Union address, expected tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a final attempt at a diplomatic solution before military escalation is underway as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are scheduled to meet again on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland. For Tehran, this is a “good opportunity”.
For his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected in Israel on Saturday.
Finally, one unknown factor that could work in favour of de-escalation is the answer to the following question: Can the US president launch a war without a “green light” from Congress?
From all over, including Lebanon and the Gulf region, voices are rising against what is being called "the risky gamble of war”.
An existential issue
In any case, for Iran, a US strike is an existential matter. The regime's survival is at stake, and perhaps the lives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son. Although the latter’s name does not appear in any list of mew appointments, while Ali Larijani is reportedly included, he is touted as a potential heir to his father.
“Tehran refuses to capitulate and accept all of the American conditions,” an Iranian source told L'Orient-Le Jour. In fact, the Iranians consider war inevitable and reject the idea of a limited US strike followed by a resumption of negotiations for an agreement.
“Any strike would amount to total war,” the source said, echoing previous remarks by the supreme leader, adding that all US assets in the region would be legitimate targets for Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal.
Naturally, these threats are a source of concern for Lebanon, which hosts some of these targets, both military and civilian. Examples include the Lebanese army airbase in Adma (Kesrouan) and the site of the US embassy in Aoukar, north of Beirut, which is still under construction.
Furthermore, many in Beirut fear that in the event of war, Hezbollah would side with Tehran, triggering Israeli retaliatory raids. “Hezbollah is not neutral in this conflict,” the secretary-general of the pro-Iranian party, Naim Qassem, said a few weeks ago.
According to information relayed by various media outlets, in the event of Hezbollah's involvement in the war, Israel has a list of approximately 1,200 targets in Lebanon.
Warnings
In circles close to Hezbollah, Israeli strikes on the Bekaa Valley and the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp last Friday are considered clear warnings to the group and to Hamas. Some 12 people were reportedly killed and dozens wounded, the highest daily toll since the November 2024 ceasefire.
In the Baalbek region, where the death toll was the highest, 10 people were killed, including six Hezbollah members. The dead include Hussein Mohammad Yaghi, son of Mohammad Hassan Yaghi, one of the party's founders in 1982, who was an executive assistant to Hassan Nasrallah, killed in September 2024. He had also been elected to parliament. Ali Zeid Moussaoui, a Hezbollah operative, was also killed in the strikes.
Military experts in Lebanon believe that the ballistic missiles located in Lebanon (which Hezbollah did not use in its 2023-2024 war backing Hamas) have been installed in areas far from the Israeli border, north of Baalbek. Furthermore, according to the experts cited, these weapons are under direct Iranian command, meaning Hezbollah could only use them with Tehran's approval.
Hezbollah called for "resistance" on Saturday after the deaths of eight of its members in an Israeli airstrike while they were attending a meeting in the Bekaa Valley. According to Israeli media, the strikes on the Ain al-Hilweh camp were carried out with sea-launched missiles, to demonstrate that "the Israeli army is capable of striking anywhere in the Middle East and not just with its strategic arm, the air force." These strikes also killed two members of Hamas.
Disarming Hezbollah
While condemning the Israeli raids, Lebanon continues its efforts to assert its sovereignty and disarm Hezbollah, thereby depriving Israel of any pretext to continue occupying part of its territory. A meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday, in Cairo to prepare for the upcoming conference in Paris on 5 March aimed at raising funds to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces and internal security forces and enable them to accomplish this task. This aid is considered essential at a time when the Lebanese army lacks the financial resources and equipment to effectively counter Hezbollah.
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