by Andrea Ferrario

The South Korean president's trip to China marked a significant diplomatic rapprochement between Seoul and Beijing after years of frostiness, but leaves fundamental strategic issues unresolved. Despite attempts to engage on the Pyongyang dossier, the Chinese government avoids any reference to denuclearisation. Economic agreements signed by Korean conglomerates on rare earths and strategic minerals

Milan (AsiaNews) - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's state visit to Beijing, which took place between 4 and 7 January, is the first of its kind since 2017. The trip takes on further significance when one considers that the 90-minute meeting with Xi Jinping was the second summit between the two leaders in just two months, after the one on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Gyeongju last November.

Lee has defined 2026 as “the year of the full restoration of Seoul-Beijing relations”, emphasising his desire to make the rapprochement a stable and lasting trend. The visit marks a clear change of course from the line taken by his predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol, who had favoured alignment with Washington.

Accompanied by the heads of major South Korean conglomerates, including Samsung and LG, Lee also signed numerous memoranda of understanding in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, the environment, transport and economic cooperation.

Xi Jinping focused much of his rhetoric on references to shared history. The Chinese president recalled how, more than 80 years ago, China and South Korea endured enormous sacrifices in the fight against Japanese militarism, arguing that today the two countries should cooperate to defend the fruits of victory in World War II and preserve peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

Lee responded along the same lines, stating that the two countries fought side by side against Japanese militarist aggression and praising China's efforts to preserve historical sites linked to the Korean independence movement. This insistence on shared historical memory highlights Beijing's strategy of driving a wedge between South Korea and Japan, a dynamic that Seoul has refrained from countering even though the South Korean president is expected in Tokyo in the coming days.

While Lee was welcomed with full honours, accompanied by a delegation of about 400 businesspeople, hundreds of Japanese executives were forced to postpone their trips to China due to the high tensions between Tokyo and Beijing. The day after the summit with Lee, Beijing also announced new export controls on Japan. It is in this context that Xi urged Lee to “stand firmly on the right side of history” and to “make the right strategic choices”, a message laden with implications in light of the growing tensions between China and Japan.

North Korea as a litmus test

On the North Korean issue, the differences between Seoul and Beijing's positions remain marked. Lee urged China to play a constructive role in promoting peace on the Korean peninsula.

According to South Korean sources, the two leaders reaffirmed the importance of reopening dialogue with North Korea, while Xi confirmed Beijing's willingness to contribute in this direction.

However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's statement made no reference to North Korean denuclearisation. This silence reflects China's growing awareness of Pyongyang's strategic value in its rivalry with the United States.

Several analysts believe that Beijing has gradually changed its approach, setting aside the rhetoric of denuclearisation in favour of a position that, in fact, accepts North Korea's nuclear status as a regional balancing factor.

In this context, the main risk factor on the Korean peninsula is not so much a deliberate US invasion or a planned North Korean offensive, but rather the possibility of miscalculation. A minor tactical move, a communication problem or an unannounced exercise could be interpreted by a North Korean command already on high alert as the start of an operation similar to that in Venezuela on 3 January.

Finally, it remains unclear what constructive role Beijing actually intends to play and whether it still has any real influence over Pyongyang, given the Kim regime's growing closeness to Moscow.

Lee reiterated that South Korea takes China's fundamental interests and main concerns into account, adhering to the “one China” principle. In this, he has departed from the line taken by his predecessor Yoon, who had always openly opposed Beijing's ambitions in Taiwan, provoking a harsh reaction from the Chinese leadership. Lee's choice therefore appears to be functional to the attempt to maintain a balance between Chinese pressure and the commitments arising from the alliance with the United States.

On the economic front, the informal ban on Korean cultural content in China, in force since 2016, remains a sensitive issue. The joint statement refers to the intention to expand cultural exchanges in a gradual and progressive manner, a very vague commitment.

Another critical issue concerns rare earths and strategic minerals, an area in which China has agreed to cooperate to allow South Korean companies to secure access to these resources after previous export restrictions. Disputes over the Yellow Sea also remain unresolved, linked to Chinese floating structures contested by Seoul and illegal fishing by Chinese fishing vessels.

The regional strategic context

The visit took place against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, which further complicated South Korea's already delicate diplomatic strategy. Seoul has long sought to position itself between China and the United States, driven by concrete economic interests and the hope of gaining room for manoeuvre in its relations with North Korea.

On 3 January, just two days before the planned summit, the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shook the international balance and was officially condemned by Pyongyang.

The timing gave Beijing an opportunity to sound out Seoul on the operation, and Xi's invitation to “stand on the right side of history” was interpreted as pressure to clarify South Korea's position. South Korean National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac acknowledged that the two countries' positions do not coincide, although they are not openly conflicting.

On the very Sunday of Lee's arrival in Beijing, North Korea launched hypersonic ballistic missiles towards the east coast, under the personal supervision of Kim Jong Un. The launch, which took place as Lee landed in China, was interpreted as a message to both Seoul and Beijing: Pyongyang does not intend to give up its deterrent and will not yield to any external pressure.

The overall picture is therefore that of a visit that marks a significant diplomatic rapprochement between Seoul and Beijing after years of frostiness, but leaves fundamental strategic issues unresolved.

South Korea is trying to balance its alliance with the United States and the economic need to maintain stable relations with China, while Beijing is trying to distance Seoul from Washington and Tokyo in the context of growing regional tensions.

For Seoul, complex questions arise about its geographical position and the implicit commitments of its alliance with Washington. The commander of US forces in South Korea has hinted that troops stationed in the country could take on a broader regional role in the event of a crisis related to Taiwan.

Although not directly involved in the disputes over the Strait, South Korea, due to its location and alliance constraints, would find it difficult to remain uninvolved in regional developments. Any evolution of the role of US forces in Korea towards more extensive functions would open up a particularly delicate phase of management.

The rapprochement with Beijing offers Seoul concrete economic advantages and the possibility of influencing North Korean developments, but the growing polarisation makes it increasingly difficult to maintain the balance between China and the United States. The space for a middle ground is gradually shrinking, and the choices Lee will have to make in the coming months are unlikely to satisfy both Washington and Beijing at the same time.