Moscow and NATO on the Baltic

The Estonian authorities have repeatedly stated that ‘Russia remains the greatest threat to our security’ and have announced their intention to open a new military base in Narva, the city divided in half by the river of the same name, one of the most sensitive points. But among the European population there is a growing conviction that ‘NATO defence on the border with Russia is inappropriate’, a view also supported by Donald Trump's administration.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - Many international commentators are wondering whether Vladimir Putin really intends to provoke a direct conflict with NATO in the Baltic countries, justifying himself once again with the need to ‘defend the Russian-speaking population’ in these areas, as has already happened with Ukraine since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

This was also mentioned by the head of Germany's intelligence service, Bruno Kahl, who said that it would not be a mass invasion with bombers and tanks, but rather ‘green men’ would be sent for a hybrid action, as in Donbass before the actual war.

In this way, according to Kahl, Putin would like to ‘test NATO's ability to defend its allies’. Ukraine would therefore be only an “intermediate step” on the road to a global conflict with the West, starting with all the former Soviet countries in Europe, and many leaders of the Putin regime do not believe that NATO would respond forcefully in the event of an attack on one of its members by invoking Article 5 of the alliance treaty. his plan therefore envisages ‘pushing NATO back to its 1991 borders, separating America from its European allies, and

Tthe Russians are willing to do anything to achieve this,’ Kahl reiterates.

For this reason, peace negotiations with Russia at this stage seem to make little sense, as Putin is not really willing to soften his aggressive stance in order to achieve the desired solution. The authorities in Estonia, the Baltic country most exposed to Russian pressure, have repeatedly stated that ‘Russia remains the greatest threat to our security,’ as Tallinn's Deputy Defence Minister Kaido Tiitus also said in recent days, believing that Moscow could restore all the military potential invested in Ukraine ‘within a couple of years, three at most.’

Since last April, Estonia has announced its intention to open a new military base in Narva, the city divided in half by the river of the same name with Russia, one of the most sensitive points, where at least 200 Estonian soldiers and various contingents of allies will be deployed.

Another facility was set up in September 2024 on the border with Russia, the Reedo military base, with a concentration of at least 1,000 soldiers, to be used as a “gathering point” in accordance with NATO's defence plans in the region.

Another 600 soldiers were deployed in the early months of this year at various points along the border with Russia, and by autumn a barrier with 14 bunkers will be set up in the north-east and four in the south.

Estonian political scientist Peeter Taim commented on these developments to journalists from Zerkalo.az, admitting that there is no certainty among experts: some believe that Putin will not attack the Baltics, having already received strong responses in Ukraine that have drained his military capabilities, making a direct confrontation with NATO impossible.

Others argue that “Putin's greatest dream is precisely to challenge and prove the inconsistency of Article 5” by attacking a country such as Estonia, which is much smaller and more vulnerable than Ukraine.

According to Taim, we must also take into account the widespread opinion in Europe among the population on the “inappropriateness of NATO defence on the borders with Russia”, a thesis also supported by Donald Trump's new administration.

Estonians are beginning to believe that they must prepare to defend themselves with their own forces, mobilising all available personnel, which currently does not exceed 30,000 people. According to some, the country that could be most ready to support the Estonians would be Finland, which is itself under pressure from the Russians at its borders.