Pax Trumpiana between New Delhi and Beijing
So far, the only real rapprochement, unintentionally fostered by the tycoon’s tariffs, is the one in the shadow of the Himalayas. But for India, the first steps suggest that it promises to be an uphill battle.
New Delhi (AsiaNews/Agencies) – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming trip next week to China are visual signs of the rapid warming relations between New Delhi and Beijing, a rapprochement triggered by Trump's tariffs.
For the Indian leader, it will be the first visit to India’s cumbersome neighbour after a seven-year hiatus, to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin.
The fallout from the White House's inexplicably harsh stance – with 50 per cent tariffs on India, seemingly motivated by Russian oil purchases (which do not seem to be a problem when China buys it) – could not have been imagined just a few weeks ago.
Some are already joking that the only real "peace" Trump has achieved is in the shadow of the Himalayas, between China and India.
The only people despairing at the turn of events are officials in the US State Department who had been working in recent years on closing the gap with India, with a view of providing India with alternative supply chains to China’s.
This approach is light years from the Trump administration's current tone. The tariffs came after other slaps, like visas for thousands of Indians in the United States, as part of Trump’s crackdown on migrants.
The US leader’s unwelcome insistence on taking credit for the ceasefire that ended the border clash with Pakistan a few weeks ago does not help. Under pressure, Prime Minister Modi could only stress national pride to respond to Washington's impositions.
While Putin spoke with Modi on the phone, updating him on the outcome of the Anchorage talks, India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar travelled to Moscow.
Meanwhile, in New Delhi, the BRICS group was gaining popularity. Until recently, New Delhi had been lukewarm towards to China’s answer to the G7, but the axis with China is not painless for India. And recent news reports seem to be bearing this out.
Yesterday, The Wire, an Indian news website, listed "seven unanswered questions" about Wang Yi's visit, arguing that this sudden rapprochement is occurring under conditions dictated by Beijing.
One key issue is the recognition of “Taiwan as part of China”, which appeared in the Chinese Foreign Ministry's press release about the meeting but not in India’s, which was then forced to quickly deny any changes in the government's official position on the matter.
What is more, despite the announcement during Wang Yi's visit to India of the resumption of direct flights, cross-border trade, and pilgrimages, there was no substantial progress on the fundamental border issue in the disputed Himalayan region of Ladakh, at the centre of clashes in 2020.
Now, it seems that, for New Delhi, a return to the status quo ante is no longer a precondition to improved relations, not to mention the highly sensitive issue of China’s military support for Pakistan, which became clear during the recent Indo-Pakistan clash.
While the issue was certainly raised in talks, there is no mention of it in official press releases.
The fact that Wang Yi flew directly from New Delhi to Islamabad, where he discussed “strengthening the strategic partnership” between China and Pakistan with Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, an increasingly key figure in the country's power structure, is not very reassuring news for New Delhi.
As for trade relations, the area most affected by the row with Washington, it remains to be seen what benefits, if any, an alliance with Beijing against US tariffs can bring.
Indeed, as The Wire notes, the trade balance is already heavily skewed in China’s favour. Boosting trade with India’s northern neighbour could only further exacerbate the disparity, weakening India's economic position.
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