Russian threats to Central Asian countries

According to Dugin and Soloviev, the former Soviet republics ‘have no right to independence’ and must reunite with Russia to avoid becoming slaves to China, America or Europe. Local governments have issued only feeble protests, invoking the ‘spirit of strategic partnership’. The suspicion that the two propagandists are saying ‘what the Russian leadership does not want to express openly, but which in reality corresponds to its plans’

Astana (AsiaNews) - While attempts are being made to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine, with unprecedented negotiations between Russians, Ukrainians and Americans, in Central Asia there is growing concern that Russia may be preparing a next phase of its ‘special operation’ on their territories, as evidenced by threats from ideologues and propagandists of the calibre of Aleksandr Dugin and Vladimir Solov'ev, according to whom these countries ‘have no right to independence’ and must reunite with Russia in order not to end up as slaves to China, America or Europe. As experts suggest, Central Asians must try to remain increasingly united among themselves to avoid a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario in the region.

The authorities of the five countries have not officially reacted to the “imperialist” statements of the Russians, as has been the norm in the post-Soviet thirty years, but there is much discussion about it in civil society, as reported by Asia Plus on this subject. Many commentators believe that these bombastic statements are merely “an attempt to show strength in a context of strategic weakness”, paving the way for future actions, arguing that without the Kremlin's consent it would not be possible to make such threatening statements in the press or on television.

Soloviev has openly stated that “Armenia and Central Asia are Russia's spheres of influence”, and the loss of these territories would be “a very big problem” for Moscow. According to the television presenter and chief propagandist of Putin's war, ‘if a special military operation has been launched to ensure Ukraine's security, why shouldn't Russia do the same in other areas of its influence?’, arguing that it no longer makes sense to worry about ‘stale norms of international law’. Dugin, the great ideologue and advisor to the tsar, confirmed this thesis by stating that ‘the era of nation states has come to an end’ and that those in Central Asia must ‘renounce their sovereignty’ because ‘in the new model of world order, nothing can be independent anymore’.

Reactions to these proclamations have been rather muted, limited to a few official notes of protest stating that they ‘do not correspond to the spirit of strategic partnership,’ as declared by the Armenian Foreign Ministry. In Kyrgyzstan, some politicians and social activists have proposed classifying Soloviev as ‘persona non grata’ and banning him from entering the country, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was forced to clarify that ‘Soloviev's words are not the official position of the Russian state,’ which continues to regard these countries as ‘reliable partners.’

Tajik expert Rustam Azizi, a member of the Academy of Sciences dedicated to combating forms of extremism, argues that ‘these statements are an attempt to change the tone of Russian propaganda within the country’, considering Moscow's loss of influence in its relations with its allies after recent events in Venezuela and Iran. “New themes and new objectives” are needed, using authoritative figures such as Dugin and Soloviev, to “maintain the impression of being a great power, at least at the regional level”. In his opinion, these are more “reaction tests” than real threats of invasion.

Another commentator, Shukhran Latifi, who deals mainly with migration issues, believes that the two propagandists are saying “what the Russian leadership does not want to say openly, but which in fact corresponds to its plans”. He calls this method the ‘Overton window’, spreading shocking ideas to get people used to them, so that ‘when the invasion of Central Asia begins, Russians will consider it an inevitable and justified move’. The persecution of Central Asian migrant workers in Russia, including allowing racist actions by far-right groups, is part of this strategy of Putin's new phase of “permanent war” throughout the former Soviet world, and therefore “we must prepare to face it without further delay”.