Singapore, Deputy Prime Minister Gan: declining birth rate erodes dynamism and competitiveness
Speaking at the Institute of Policy Studies conference, the government's number two warns that the fertility rate has not stabilised. The long-term risk is a reduction in the number of citizens, with consequences for the economy and society. The total population is approximately 3.66 million citizens, plus 0.54 million permanent residents and 1.91 million non-residents.
Singapore (AsiaNews) - Although it will remain constant in 2024, Singapore's total fertility rate (TFR) does not yet appear to have stabilised, to the extent that the population of the Southeast Asian city-state could soon begin to decline if current trends continue unchanged. This was stated in recent days by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, speaking at the annual conference entitled Singapore Perspectives promoted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).
On that occasion, the number two in the executive warned that the decline in the city's population would “erode the dynamism” of Singapore, ultimately compromising its “long-term competitiveness”. “Many people think that the TFR has stabilised, but this is not the case. If no action is taken, the core citizenry will begin to shrink,” Gan added.
Singapore's TFR in 2024 was 0.97, unchanged from 2023. However, Deputy Prime Minister Gan noted that the figure was positively influenced by the Year of the Dragon, which traditionally sees higher birth rates in the Chinese community. ‘Dragon years,’ he explained, ‘usually increase Singapore's birth rate, as they are considered auspicious years for having children.’ ‘The fact that the total fertility rate has remained unchanged, therefore, means,’ the politician pointed out, ‘that the base has actually declined further.’
The city-state's TFR has fallen steadily over the past decade, from 1.12 in 2021 to 1.04 in 2022, before falling below unity in 2023. The replacement rate necessary for population sustainability is 2.1. Singapore's current demographic challenges come decades after the government sought to curb steady population growth by actively intervening in birth policy.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the state introduced aggressive family planning measures under the “Stop at Two” policy, aimed at alleviating pressure on housing, jobs and public services in a young nation with limited resources. The policy included financial disincentives for large families and a strong public awareness campaign to encourage smaller households. Although effective in reducing birth rates, the long-term demographic impact led to a reversal in the late 1980s, when the government began encouraging Singaporeans to have more children through pro-natalist measures.
Despite decades of incentives, including housing subsidies, childcare subsidies, parental leave programmes and newborn bonuses, fertility rates continued to decline. This regression was also a reflection of broader social and economic changes, such as the progressive delay in the age of marriage, changing family aspirations and the growing pressures of working life.
The government is still finalising fertility data for 2025, but Deputy Prime Minister Gan has warned that expectations should remain modest. “I must admit,” he confirmed, “that I am unable to give good news on the TFT front”. The government leader's reflections emerged during a dialogue with the director of the Institute of Policy Studies, Janadas Devan, at the close of the conference.
The theme of the meeting was “fraternity” and it focused on social cohesion and shared responsibility in a context of demographic and social change. In June 2025, Singapore's total population was 6.11 million, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year, mainly due to the growth of the migrant population. The total population is approximately 3.66 million citizens, 0.54 million permanent residents and 1.91 million non-residents.
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22/12/2023 16:44
