Thai leaders using fresh border clashes with Cambodia ahead of elections
The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has reignited, with new airstrikes and hundreds of thousands of displaced people on both sides. Domestic Thai political tensions are behind the military crisis. PM Anutin Charnvirakul's government, in difficulty and on the verge of parliament’s dissolution, is exploiting nationalist rhetoric to bolster support. Meanwhile, Cambodia is drawing militarily closer to Vietnam.
Bangkok/Phnom Penh (AsiaNews) – Despite the truce reached in July under pressure from US President Donald Trump, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited in recent days, with fighting along the border continuing today. The Royal Thai Air Force confirmed new airstrikes this morning, but did not provide further details.
Over the past few months, the terms of the peace deal signed in October (mediated by Malaysia, the current ASEAN chair) have never been implemented, paving the way for the resumption of hostilities along the shared border.
At the heart of the tensions remains the definition of the border (drawn in 1907 and considered inaccurate by Thailand, even though the International Court of Justice has repeatedly reaffirmed the legitimacy of Cambodian sovereignty over certain areas) and the presence, on Cambodian territory, of casinos and online scam centres, which Thailand believes facilitate illegal trafficking.
The escalation is also underway against a backdrop of growing political instability in Thailand. According to some analysts, the government of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (who came to power after the fall of the Pheu Thai government) is trying to build support ahead of the dissolution of Parliament, scheduled for after 12 December, and early elections that could be held as early as next January or February.
Nationalist rhetoric offers the government an opportunity to show its resolve at a time when political competition is intensifying. The progressive People's Party remains very popular among young people and has long sought to challenge the political establishment represented by the monarchy and the military.
Anutin fears a no-confidence motion announced by Pheu Thai. The military crisis on the border, therefore, is a tool of pressure, a way to unite the conservative camp, divert attention from the government's failures (such as the poor management of the recent floods in the south of the country), and strengthen the image of a leadership capable of defending national sovereignty. But that is not all.
Yesterday, a Thai drone carried out an attack on a casino in the MDS Heng He Thmorda Special Economic Zone in Sa Kaeo province. The place, owned by Cambodian tycoon Try Pheap and Chinese investors, was reportedly used as a weapons depot, according to Thailand, which claims a drone signal jamming tower was also present.
Another casino was also destroyed in Boeung Trakoun, which the Thai military claims served as a supply point for the Cambodian troops.
Thai forces also struck a series of military targets, including a BM-21 rocket depot in Samraong, Oddar Meanchey Province, and various anti-drone emplacements and systems in Surin, Sisaket, and Ubon Ratchathani.
Cambodia, in response, targeted disputed areas along the border, such as Chong Bok, Ta Kwai Temple, Kana Temple, Phu Ma Khuea, and the Ta Muen Thom complex.
So far, Thai authorities have reported 10 deaths (three soldiers and seven civilians), while the Cambodian Interior Ministry confirmed the deaths of nine civilians and said that 20 others were injured, but did not provide figures on military losses.
Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border.
The two sides continue to accuse each other of initiating the hostilities. Hun Sen, former prime minister and father of the current Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, said that Phnom Penh waited 24 hours before responding to the attacks. "Cambodia needs peace, but Cambodia is compelled to counterattack to defend our territory," he said in a Facebook post.
For Thailand, Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, reiterated that the country “is determined to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, military measures must be taken as necessary.”
Several observers expected renewed fighting, since neither side has respected the terms of the agreement signed on 26 October, like coordinating mine-clearing operations, withdrawing heavy weapons from the border, implementing measures to rebuild mutual trust, and refraining from propaganda activities or the dissemination of hostile information.
Bangkok suspended de-escalation measures last month after a Thai soldier was injured by a mine explosion, claiming that the explosive device had been planted recently, while Phnom Penh claims it was a remnant of the civil war.
Cambodia, for its part, accuses Thailand of holding 18 Cambodian soldiers as prisoners, in violation of international humanitarian law.
Despite Bangkok's significant military advantage, Phnom Penh has sought to strengthen its diplomatic position, supporting Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize candidacy. Trump has responded positively to Cambodian flattery (irritating Thailand, a historic US ally), but also by leveraging ties elsewhere in the region.
It is perhaps no coincidence that the war between Thailand and Cambodia resumed on the very day that the Cambodian and Vietnamese prime ministers inaugurated the new Tan Nam/Meun Chey border crossing.
According to some commentators, Vietnam is seeking to exploit tensions in Southeast Asia to its advantage. Although Hanoi has remained neutral so far, some members of its military have reportedly called for strengthening defence ties with Phnom Penh to promote border security.
Yesterday, several Cambodian military representatives met with their Vietnamese counterparts on the margins of the inauguration of the new border crossing.
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