The Iranian crisis and delicate relations with Ashgabat

Since gaining independence from the USSR, Iran has been one of Turkmenistan's few foreign policy partners, with which it shares almost 1,000 kilometres of border. During Raisi's presidency, new cooperation agreements were signed, particularly in the energy sector. Fears of a possible exodus of the two million ethnic Turkmen living in the northern region of the country.

Ashgabat (AsiaNews) - The dramatic events unfolding in Iran cannot leave the inhabitants of neighbouring Turkmenistan indifferent, separated by a border of almost a thousand kilometres and which has always maintained good neighbourly relations with Tehran.

Since 1990 and its independence from the USSR, Iran has been one of Ashgabat's few foreign policy partners, which otherwise asserts a proud neutrality towards all others. The Iranians have granted the Turkmen access to the ports of the Persian Gulf and are among the largest buyers of Turkmen natural gas.

During the presidency of Ibrahim Raisi, who died in a tragic accident a year and a half ago, relations between the two states had further intensified, in what Tehran had called “the policy of good neighbourliness”, seeking to increase trade. In 2022, the new Turkmen president, Serdar Berdymukhamedov, made an official visit to Iran, signing a package of agreements on trade, transport and energy.

After Raisi's death, whose funeral was attended by President-Father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the situation became complicated; the radical Islamic president was very predictable and popular with the Turkmen, due to his pragmatic choices, which were then lost with the new president Masud Pezeshkyan, considered by Ashgabat to be more moderate and less decisive.

Now the Turkmen leadership fears that the new wave of protests and bloody repression could lead Iran into chaos, blocking all joint projects in progress that had been planned for a period of twenty years, while Iranian leaders now have other concerns.

Regular contacts between members of the two governments have obviously been interrupted, and diplomatic relations are maintained only formally.

As in other Central Asian countries, there have been no official comments from Ashgabat on the events in Iran, as they wait to see which regime they will have to deal with.

However, one urgent issue concerns security and cooperation at the borders, should the protests descend into full-blown civil war; Turkmenistan would risk seeing waves of refugees arriving and suffering internal destabilisation itself.

The northern region of Iran is known as Turkmen Sahra, and is home to about two million ethnic Turkmen, who in the event of violent unrest could seek refuge in their historical homeland to the north, a scenario similar to what has recently happened in Syria and Afghanistan with other ethnic groups.

Ashgabat has already strengthened border controls and is conducting exercises to prevent uncontrolled masses from crossing the borders, and cooperation with Tehran to block drug trafficking channels from Afghanistan is now also at serious risk.

Economically, the main problem concerns the energy sector, given that the unrest is triggering further international reactions and sanctions, preventing Iran from maintaining its oil and gas imports and exports, and Turkmen gas could become even more necessary for domestic needs, especially in the northern regions, where fuel has always been in short supply during the winter frosts.

If a regime change were to lift sanctions against Iran, this could open up very interesting prospects for Turkmenistan, such as the construction of new gas pipelines through Iran and Turkey to reach Europe, plans that have so far been blocked by the Americans, while a possible pro-Western liberal monarchy in Tehran would also please the “neutral” dictatorship in Ashgabat.

And it would be a great warning to all Central Asians, reminding them that even the most unexpected changes can happen anywhere, even in very closed and controlled societies.