The foreign policy waltz in Astana

Former ambassador to Moscow Eremek Košerbaev appointed as new foreign minister, with the aim of “recovering” relations with Russia after opening up to the West. The Kazakh ambassador to the United States, Eražan Ašikbaev, who was very close to the previous minister Murat Nurtleu, has also been dismissed. However, the decision was also influenced by the excessive number of assistants and advisers, which are to be cut as part of the fight against corruption.

Astana (AsiaNews) - Kazakhstan has appointed a new foreign minister, 60-year-old Eremek Košerbaev, to replace Murat Nurtleu, who has become the president's adviser for international cooperation in investment and trade. The first task assigned to the new head of diplomacy is to prepare for President Kasym-Žomart Tokaev's visit to Moscow in November, the umpteenth foreign policy U-turn by the Kazakhs to rebalance relations with their old Russian masters after ‘excessive openness’ towards the West.

The change at the top of the ministry has in fact coincided with growing tensions with Russia, evident in the complications at the commercial transport borders, which Košerbaev has already dealt with closely as a ministry executive. Thousands of lorries arriving from China are stuck in kilometre-long queues at customs before entering Russia, where they are subjected to extremely thorough checks, and drivers report weeks of delays and particularly uncomfortable waiting conditions. The Russian customs service explains that these are not generalised restrictions, but measures to prevent illegal trafficking.

Košerbaev is a well-known figure in Russia, where he served as ambassador from 2020 to 2023, and for many other positions he has held during his political and diplomatic career. The editor-in-chief of Orda.kz, Gulnar Bažkenova, considers his appointment, along with other replacements at the top of the presidential administration, to be a sign of Kazakhstan's foreign policy failures. Back in September, after the SCO summit in China, news spread of Nurtleu's arrest, which was later denied without explanation, probably linked to the poor results obtained in Tianjin. To avoid further controversy, the former minister accompanied President Tokaev on his visit to New York for the UN Assembly, where Kazakhstan also failed to conclude many advantageous agreements.

The dismissal of the Kazakh ambassador to the US, Eražan Ašikbaev, a person very close to Nurtleu, also caused a stir. Astana's foreign policy remains in a state of instability and disorientation, starting with the 25% tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, the trade imbalance with China and the spread of smuggling on the route between Beijing and Moscow, and the president's choices seem to be frantically searching for the right direction for a positive turnaround. Nurtleu's career could see new growth if, as an adviser to the president, he manages to find solutions to untangle the country's Eastern and Western dependencies and normalise relations with Russia.

Ašikbaev's replacement also appears to be an attempt to reorient relations with the United States, considering that the ambassador was sent to that role in 2021 under Joe Biden's presidency, and now new possibilities for agreement with Donald Trump must be found. According to political scientist Danijar Ašimbaev, the recent decisions to swap roles mainly indicate the need for “optimisation and restoration of order” in Astana's administrative apparatus, which had become too “cumbersome and overloaded”, with the accumulation of more than 15 foreign policy assistants and advisers, with overlapping and duplicated functions that limited its effectiveness.

In an interview with inbusiness.kz, Ašimbaev states that “the aim was to reduce an overly crowded team, not as a spontaneous reaction, but as part of the implementation of a project that began after the president's last message to the nation”, in which he promised transparency and the fight against corruption. However, the fundamental guidelines of domestic and foreign policy remain unchanged, in the pursuit of stability in the balance of external influences, social harmony, the consolidation of the results achieved and support for “multivectorality” at the international level, as the expert states.