China confirms its role in Myanmar’s disputed elections
Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun said that the vote (to guarantee Chinese interests) was a condition Xi Jinping imposed on Min Aung Hlaing. The results from the first round on 28 December released by Myanmar’s military regime confirm the expected victory by a wide margin for the military-backed party. In Myanmar, however, China is walking a tightrope, continuing to support ethnic militias that control border areas.
Yangon (AsiaNews) – China has confirmed its role in Myanmar's controversial military-run elections, with a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claiming that they are a direct result of a deal struck by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar strongman General Min Aung Hlaing.
The admission by China's special envoy for Asian affairs, Deng Xijun, marks the first time Beijing has publicly acknowledged its pivotal involvement in Myanmar's political life since the coup.
Speaking in Naypyidaw, Deng said that the elections are the result of “an agreement reached" with President Xi Jinping, a reference to high-level talks held in Tianjin, China, in August 2025, when Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that China supports Myanmar in "safeguarding its sovereignty" and "unifying all domestic political forces."
The junta leader's long-awaited meeting with the Chinese president was seemingly granted only after he made a commitment to hold elections. During his visit to China from 30 August to 6 September 2025, seven memoranda of understanding were signed.
Political analysts see these as incentives from Beijing to ensure the junta's compliance with China's political plan for Myanmar.
China's strategy revolves around the so-called “51% Formula”, a system designed to ensure permanent military control through a combination of 25 per cent military-appointed parliamentarians and 26 per cent pro-military civilian representatives, creating a stable majority that serves its interests.
The first round of voting, on 28 December, was marred by numerous reports of voter intimidation and manipulation, with turnout apparently much lower than the junta expected, despite aggressive pressure tactics.
Voters across the country reported threats and blackmail from local officials, including forced military conscription. Ministry supervisors ordered staff to vote, threatening unspecified punishments. Army officials pressured military families to participate, creating a climate of fear even within the defence establishment.
Despite these efforts, voter turnout remained surprisingly low in many areas. U Kyaw Swa, a candidate, acknowledged that turnout in his constituency hovered around 30 per cent. Opposition observers suggest similar or lower percentages in disputed areas.
Yesterday, the military regime reported the first official results for the first round, a 52 per cent turnout, a figure that needs to be verified, in any case, much lower than the 70 per cent recorded in 2020.
As for areas where voting took place, the outcome was a foregone conclusion: the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military’s political arm, won most seats.
To complete the process, the remaining two rounds on 11 and 25 January in other constituencies (which include only areas controlled by the military junta) are now awaited.
Several political parties that participated in the elections have reported widespread irregularities, particularly regarding early voting.
The Tai-Lue Nationalities Development Party, the People's Party led by U Ko Ko Gyi, and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy have all accused the military of ballot manipulation.
Some politicians have gone further, calling them not “advance ballots” but “pre-arranged ballots”. Critics say that the junta is simply recycling fraud techniques from the U Thein Sein era.
The political parties that chose to participate now find themselves divided and demoralised. The National League for Democracy (NLD) was banned and not allowed to participate.
Those who call themselves "democratic forces" despite entering a junta-controlled election face accusations of legitimising military rule.
Popular anger over Chinese interference
The revelation of China's direct role has fuelled widespread resentment in the country. On social media, many users have voiced anti-China sentiments, feeling betrayed by the actions of a neighbouring country that is actively working to consolidate a military dictatorship rather than supporting democratic aspirations.
“China is not just standing by – they are the architects of our oppression,” wrote one Yangon resident. “The election fraud, the military control, the whole system – it's all part of Beijing's plan to control Myanmar.”
China's motivations are primarily economic and strategic. Beijing wants to protect its massive investments in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), including railways, roads, and the deep-water port of Kyaukphyu, which is strategic for access to the Bay of Bengal.
China also demands unconditional support for its One China Policy on Taiwan, support that Beijing reportedly believed to be uncertain under the previous NLD government.
The elections are widely seen as a sham aimed at providing a semblance of legitimacy to military rule.
Former military officer Min Aung Hlaing, who will almost certainly become "president" under the new system, has abandoned all pretence of neutrality, openly expressing his willingness to accept the post when questioned by journalists.
The nascent "civilian" government will be largely composed of retired military officers who have simply swapped their uniforms for civilian clothes.
Even the junta's spokesman, Major General Zaw Min Tun, may continue in his role, wearing traditional Burmese dress instead of a military uniform.
International isolation deepens
Western nations unanimously condemned the elections as illegitimate, noting that the military excluded the National League for Democracy, which won by large majorities in 2015 and 2020, and imprisoned its leaders, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi.
ASEAN has also refused to recognise the elections as a solution to Myanmar's crisis. Only Russia and a handful of countries under Chinese influence are expected to recognise the post-election government.
After the elections, Myanmar’s political environment will be largely unchanged with the current military dictatorship, simply disguised as civilians.
Still, the "stability" promised by China appears distant, as resistance forces have vowed to continue their armed struggle regardless of the election outcome.
Analysts warn that China's strategy is inherently contradictory: while Beijing is boosting ethnic militias along its border, it is simultaneously supporting a centralised military government.
This “tightrope walk”, as doctoral researcher in foreign affairs Ko Amara Thiha calls it, could easily backfire, leading to the very instability China fears.
For ordinary Myanmar citizens, the post-election reality will mean continued economic hardship, persistent conflict, and a political system that serves foreign interests rather than their own democratic aspirations.
The revelation of the Xi–Min Aung Hlaing deal has made explicit what many suspected: Myanmar's democratic crisis is not merely a domestic issue, but is crucially shaped by Chinese strategic calculations. A bitter reality for a nation struggling to determine its own future.
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