General Min Aung Hlaing moves to the presidency as the axis with Beijing strengthens
The junta’s leader is getting ready to formally step down from his military command to assume the presidency in the new government that will take office in April. The creation of a powerful consultative council could allow him to maintain control over the regime. Meanwhile, his deputy, General Soe Win, is emerging as a key figure in relations with China.
Yangon (AsiaNews) – General Min Aung Hlaing is set to step down as Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services to take on the country’s presidency when the new parliament convenes in March.
More than a handover, the move appears to be a reorganisation of power intended to further strengthen the junta's grip on Myanmar, even though it only controls a portion of the territory.
According to military and diplomatic sources cited in a BBC Burmese report, Foreign Minister Than Swe informed his Thai counterpart, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, that a new commander-in-chief will replace Min Aung Hlaing, who has held the post since 2011.
Senior officials confirmed that the plan for his transition to the presidency is underway.
During the election period, Min Aung Hlaing merely stated that, “Once the Parliament is convened, they have their own procedures and methods for selection”.
The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party dominated the recent elections, which were held in three phases between late December and January, winning 233 of the 264 seats up for grabs in the Lower House (Pyithu Hluttaw) and 108 of the 224 seats available in the Upper House (Amyotha Hluttaw).
Since the constitution, drafted by the army in 2008, already allocates a quarter of the seats to the military, the USDP will have absolute control over the next government.
The United Nations and human rights groups have described the vote as a one-sided exercise aimed at consolidating military rule.
While the constitution prevents the president from simultaneously holding the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services, General Min Aung Hlaing might have a solution in a new institutional body.
A few days after the elections concluded, state media announced the creation of a five-member Union Consultative Council, with broad powers over both the civil administration and the armed forces (Tatmadaw).
According to Naing Min Khant of the Institute for Strategy and Policy in Myanmar, this would be a sort of “super-body” above the executive, legislative, and judiciary branches, potentially destined to become the country's real supreme authority.
In this scenario, Min Aung Hlaing could give up his military role while maintaining (or even expanding) his influence, especially if, as domestic sources suggest, he himself chooses the new commander-in-chief, thus ensuring continuity and loyalty within the Tatmadaw.
The junta’s second-in-command, General Soe Win, could influence the balance of the new institutional structure as well. In recent weeks, his international profile has appeared to be growing, especially in relations with China. He was also the first junta official to visit China after the 2021 coup on behalf of General Min Aung Hlaing.
During this year’s Lunar New Year celebrations, the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, Ma Jia, declared that relations between China and Myanmar had reached "new heights" in 2025.
General Min Aung Hlaing, who did not attend this year's event, delegated Soe Win to represent him, a choice that some observers interpret as a possible sign for a senior role in the new government.
Speaking on that occasion, he thanked China for its role in the peace process and for its support in the region and internationally, a reference to events in 2024-2025, when Beijing intervened decisively in the conflict in the north of the country.
After the armed resistance groups' gains, China was crucial in shifting the balance of power on the ground, helping the junta regain ground in several areas.
In his address, General Soe Win described Myanmar as a crossroads between Southeast Asia and South Asia, echoing Beijing's view of the country as a strategic corridor to the Indian Ocean.
He cited China's major infrastructure projects: the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port in Rakhine State, the Myitsone Dam in Kachin State, the nearly 800-kilometre-long oil and gas pipelines connecting Kyaukphyu to Yunnan, and the Muse-Mandalay railway, the first segment of the Kyaukphyu-Kunming corridor.
Parliament is expected to convene in March 2026, with the new government taking office in April, following a timeline like that of previous post-election transitions in 2010, 2015, and 2020.
Soe Win's potential rise to a senior position (as vice president or as a key figure in the new Union Consultative Council) could serve a dual purpose: reassure Beijing and distribute power among the military hierarchy to avoid fractures during Min Aung Hlaing's formal transition to the presidency.
Several commentators have noted that the number three in command, Chief of the General Staff, General Kyaw Swar Lin, long considered Min Aung Hlaing's heir apparent, could also gain a key role.
When the new government does take office in a couple of months, Myanmar could emerge with a civilian president, a commander-in-chief chosen by his predecessor, and a Union Consultative Council with broad powers.
A change in title does not, however, imply a change of direction in the country’s ongoing civil war, which is increasingly turning into a war of attrition.
Vast swathes of territory remain in the hands of opposition forces, who have been fighting the army since the 2021 coup and have announced their intention to intensify operations.
The National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, which considers itself the legitimate representative of the people of Myanmar, has rejected the elections and reiterated its goal of overthrowing the junta.
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04/05/2021 16:15
01/08/2023 14:11
