by Fady Noun

An Israeli air raid struck an apartment on the southern outskirts of Beirut. The target was Haytham Ali Tabataba'i, chief of staff of the pro-Iranian party. Washington and Tel Aviv are against the Lebanese leadership, which has not yet managed to disarm Hezbollah. The Pope's imminent visit rules out any immediate escalation, but fears for the future remain.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - Less than a week before Pope Leo XIV's visit to Lebanon (30 November-2 December) and on the eve of the first anniversary of the cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Hezbollah on 27 November 2024, a spectacular air raid by the Jewish state struck an apartment in Haret Hreik, on the southern outskirts of Beirut.

This is the first attack since last June on the Lebanese capital to hit targets linked to the pro-Iranian Shiite party, and it served as a reminder that this cessation of hostilities is only a step towards the total military elimination of the fighting group.

The truce agreement tacitly stipulated that Lebanon, with a new president, would complete what Israel had begun by disarming Hezbollah according to a process defined in UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701, starting with the regions south of the Litani River.

Lebanon has begun this process, but is encountering strong resistance from the Party of God. Does the raid on 23 November mean that the Jewish state has regained control of the situation? Is Hezbollah expected to respond? There is still no answer to these questions. The common opinion is that the pro-Iranian party is considering various options.

The attack claimed the lives of six men, including Haytham Ali Tabataba'i, a Lebanese man of Iranian descent who served as chief of staff of the pro-Iranian party. Tabataba'i was in charge of the Radwan Force, Hezbollah's elite unit, as well as the party's rearmament with short-range drones capable of reaching northern Israel.

His funeral, held yesterday in the southern suburbs of Beirut, confirmed the immense following that Hezbollah continues to have within the Shiite community and, consequently, the complexity of the Lebanese army's task of disarming this movement.

At the same time, the United States welcomed the elimination of a man whose head it had been seeking since 2016, in exchange for a £3.7 million reward, but assured that it had only been informed of the attack while the operation itself was underway. Through Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Jewish state declared that it acts independently when it comes to matters concerning its own security.

Washington campaign

It should be noted, however, that the raid coincided with a campaign against the Lebanese government and army, which Washington and Tel Aviv accuse of lacking determination in the process of militarily neutralising Hezbollah.

In particular, Beirut's refusal to accept Israel's request to search private homes for weapons caches. This campaign led to the postponement of a visit to the United States by the army commander, General Rodolphe Haykal, who is close to President Joseph Aoun.

For the government, Washington's growing impatience reflects a total ignorance of the realities in Lebanon, as well as the difficulty of the task in terms of the resources and personnel available to the Lebanese army.

In response to Washington, from an army barracks in Tyre on 22 November, Lebanon's Independence Day, the head of state gave a speech in which he assured that the country is willing to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the border dispute with Israel, in anticipation of the total disarmament of the pro-Iranian party.

Nevertheless, his reassurances have so far found no response from Israel or the United States. An Egyptian mission is also underway to bring the positions closer together, while France and Saudi Arabia are taking steps to break the isolation of the Lebanese leadership and, in particular, to accelerate the ongoing strengthening of its army.

No immediate escalation

Returning to Pope Leo XIV's visit, the Israeli attack does not seem to have caused much concern among the Lebanese, who rule out that it could be a prelude to an immediate escalation. Statements from the Jewish state are along these lines.

Furthermore, corroborating sources assure that, at the request of Washington, conveyed by Vice President J.D. Vance, Israel will not do anything that could compromise the Pope's visit, expected on Sunday 30 November in Lebanon.

This is also the prevailing opinion among travel agencies and operators in the sector, according to whom the attack on the southern suburbs has not caused any cancellations of bookings or flights to Beirut for the time being.

‘The prevailing sentiment among travellers is that there is little chance of a generalised worsening of the situation, at least until Pope Leo XIV's visit,’ Jean Abboud, president of the Lebanese Travel and Tourism Agencies Association (Attal), told AsiaNews.

For many Lebanese, beyond diplomatic protocol, the Pope's arrival represents the hope for a moment of national cohesion in a fragile country, but one deeply attached to interreligious coexistence as its profound identity.

However, the Lebanese are all aware that the ‘truce’ they will enjoy will only be temporary and could be followed by an intensification of Israeli attacks in the context of a military escalation.

For the local Church, time is not on Lebanon's side; the constantly postponed hope for lasting stability only exacerbates the human exodus affecting the university elite and its youth in general. After all, despite all the critical issues, the theme of putting down roots in the East should be among those that the pontiff will address during his meeting with young people on 1 December in Bkerké.

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• Pope Leo XIV
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